Desmond Manatsa
With social media ablaze with doomsday predictions about the 2026/2027 “Super El Niño,” panic has naturally begun to spread among farmers, businesses, and households.
Voice notes forecasting total crop failure, dry dams and mass livestock losses are circulating faster than any official bulletin can be issued. While the threat to Zimbabwe’s food and water security is genuine, regional climate science and historical data offer a much more nuanced picture than the sensationalised claims circulating online.
The distinction is not academic. A nation that reads science correctly prepares. A nation that reads only the rumours panics, and history shows panic has its own costs.
The global reality
vs local destiny
Recent meteorological data confirms that the current El Niño event is exceptionally strong globally. In its October 2026 diagnostic discussion, the United States Climate Prediction Centre reported sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4,0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, with the Niño-3,4 index reaching +2,1°C.
The centre now puts the probability of an event surpassing every El Niño on record since 1950 at 83 percent for October to December. Closer to home, the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) indicated a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall over much of Zimbabwe between November and February, along with above-normal temperatures.
However, the most crucial scientific finding that counters the current panic is that a severe global El Niño does not automatically guarantee a severe drought in Zimbabwe.
This is not merely theoretical. It is backed by historical precedent. The 1997/1998 event was one of the strongest “Super El Niños” of the 20th century, and forecasts at the time anticipated a regional catastrophe. Yet Zimbabwe largely escaped the widespread drought that had been feared.
Heavy rains in late January 1998 lifted cumulative totals close to normal across most of the country, although the southern provinces remained dry. The national maize harvest of about 1,47 million tonnes, while below average, was considerably better than had been anticipated at the start of the season. This shows that while baseline risk is elevated, global intensity does not necessarily dictate local outcomes.
Hidden cost of panic
The 1997/1998 season offers another lesson that remains directly relevant today. Studies of that season found exaggerated media coverage of the El Niño forecast prompted many farmers to buy less seed, while limited access to credit further narrowed their options. As a result, the area planted fell. Researchers concluded that reliance on the alarmist forecast led to lower, rather than higher, yields.
In other words, part of that season’s loss came not from the weather but from the reaction to it. Panic is, therefore, not harmless. Left unchecked, it can depress production even in a season when the rains are adequate.
Science of the “escaped” El Niño
A climatological review of historical El Niño summers reveals that our local atmospheric circulation plays a dominant role in determining our weather outcomes. El Niño influences Zimbabwe remotely, from the far side of the planet. Its signal must travel through regional circulation, including systems such as the Angola Low, which draws moisture into the subcontinent. Recent research demonstrates that these regional atmospheric systems largely determine whether
Zimbabwe experiences a severely dry or a wetter (“escaped”) El Niño.
When local pressure conditions suppress storm formation, severe droughts occur, as the country experienced in 2015/2016 and again in 2023/2024. Conversely, in “escaped” seasons such as 1997/1998, these systems are positioned differently, allowing adequate moisture and rainfall to reach the country, despite the overarching El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
The implication is significant. The strength of Pacific warming loads the odds, but the behaviour of the regional circulation as it evolves through the season settles the outcome. This is why the Meteorological Services Department’s monthly and sub-seasonal updates deserve as much attention as the initial seasonal outlook.
Evidence-based impacts
When an El Niño-induced drought manifests, research from recent events highlights specific, cascading effects. Rain-fed agriculture is the first and most vulnerable casualty. A delayed start to the rainy season disrupts planting, while prolonged dry spells after planting cause critical crops to wilt during key growth stages, particularly flowering and grain filling.
The strain then extends to water resources. Diminished dam inflows affect both urban water supplies and rural ecosystems. Reduced inflows into Lake Kariba also constrain hydropower generation, as the country experienced during the 2015/2016 and 2023/2024 droughts. During previous El Niño droughts, significantly dropping water levels forced wildlife into human settlements, increasing human-wildlife conflict.
The economic ripple effects follow. A poor harvest impacts the national economy by reducing household food supplies, increasing the cost of basic commodities, and forcing the reallocation of national budgets toward food assistance.
Proactive measures and expert guidance
Understanding the science allows for strategic preparation rather than paralysis. The expansion of climate-resilient agriculture is a primary defence. National conservation farming programmes, notably Pfumvudza/Intwasa, use techniques such as minimum tillage and mulching to retain soil moisture on small plots and are designed to withstand erratic rainfall patterns. Diversifying into drought-tolerant small grains such as sorghum and millet further spreads risk.
Timing is equally critical. The Government’s phased planting guide for this season identifies
December as the main planting window for most areas, provided that effective rains have established adequate soil moisture. Farmers are advised against planting after isolated showers, and equally against abandoning the season altogether. Below-normal rainfall does not mean no rainfall, and as 1997/1998 demonstrated, fields left unplanted cannot benefit from the rains that do arrive.
Crucially, generalised national forecasts should not replace localised expertise. Farmers should consult their local Agritex officers for tailored advice on crop selection, drought-tolerant varieties, and precise planting dates. Similarly, other climate information users, ranging from water resource managers to civil protection authorities, should engage directly with the Meteorological Services
Department for specific operational data. Both institutions are on standby, fully equipped, and ready to help stakeholders navigate the nuances of the upcoming season.
While social media thrives on fear, the scientific reality is one of heightened risk that requires calculated, proactive management. With historical climatological data, ongoing local research, and expert guidance, the nation can weather the current season effectively.
· Desmond Manatsa is a full professor at Bindura University of Science Education and a climate science expert for Southern Africa. He is also president of the Africa Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes (AADRI).
