Online Reporter
Bongani Ndlovu, [email protected]
ZIMBABWE is bracing for a potentially difficult 2026/27 rainy season, with a very strong El Niño expected to bring below-normal rainfall, frequent dry spells and warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country.
The forecast has prompted Government to call for early preparations to mitigate the potential humanitarian and socio-economic impact of the anticipated dry conditions.
Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister, Dr Zhemu Soda, announced the forecast during the Post-Cabinet briefing in Harare on Tuesday, saying the national rainfall outlook pointed to generally drier conditions during the coming season.
“The 2026/2027 rainfall season is expected to be influenced by a very strong El Niño, which increases the likelihood of a below to normal rainfall season,” Dr Soda said.
The National Climate Outlook covers the period from October 2026 to March 2027 and was produced following the consensus regional climate outlook issued at the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28.
Minister Soda said the October to December period was expected to have an increased likelihood of below-normal to normal cumulative rainfall.
However, he said local variations were possible, with some districts in Matabeleland South and Masvingo provinces having a chance of receiving near-normal rainfall in December.
“Local variations cannot be ruled out, hence the need to exercise alertness as the El Niño phenomenon develops,” he said.
The January to March 2027 period is also expected to remain relatively dry, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country, which have an increased likelihood of below-normal to normal rainfall.
“The outlook indicates continued dryness for the three months, with less rainfall compared to long-term averages,” Dr Soda said.
The southern and western parts of the country are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the same period, although cumulative rainfall is projected to remain within the normal range compared to long-term averages.
Dr Soda said the rainfall season was expected to be erratic, both in terms of when and where rainfall would occur, with frequent dry spells that could be prolonged in some months.
He said the country could also experience warmer-than-normal temperatures.
“Due to increased likelihood of reduced rainfall, Ministries, Departments, Agencies and stakeholders are encouraged to strengthen contingency planning in order to mitigate potential humanitarian and socio-economic impacts,” Dr Soda said.
He said there was also a need to intensify water harvesting and conservation programmes in preparation for the anticipated dry conditions.
The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe will continue providing detailed information on the 2026/27 summer season as the season progresses.
