Martin Kadzere
GOLD deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery between January and September this year reached 35,88 tonnes, translating to about 71,8 percent of the 50-tonne goal and leaving a 14,12-tonne gap for the final three months of the year.
Zimbabwe must now pull off a final-quarter push and realise at least 14,12 tonnes by December to hit its baseline production target of 50 tonnes, based on deliveries through September.
While reaching the upper end of the 50- to 55-tonne target range might be a long shot requiring a 60 percent average leap in monthly output, achieving the lower 50-tonne threshold remains well within reach.
To achieve the 50-tonne mark, deliveries need to average about 4,71 tonnes per month through December—an 18 percent increase over the year-to-date monthly average of 3,99 tonnes.
Crucially, the fourth-quarter production slump that typically accompanies the onset of the summer rainy season is expected to be muted this year, with projected delayed rains allowing small-scale and artisanal miners to maintain strong operational momentum into the final quarter.
Over the nine months to September, artisanal and small-scale miners delivered a weighty 25,78 tonnes—nearly 72 percent of total gold purchases—compared to 10,1 tonnes from the large-scale miners.
Quarterly output expanded steadily through the year, rising from 9,31 tonnes in the first quarter to 12,09 tonnes in the second, before peaking at 14,48 tonnes in the third quarter, figures show.
While monthly deliveries eased to 4,72 tonnes in September, following August’s peak of 5,12 tonnes, underlying run-rates remain historically strong.
Even under a conservative scenario where monthly output averages around four tonnes through December, full-year output could comfortably exceed 47,8 tonnes, thus eclipsing last year’s record of 46,7 tonnes.
Gold is Zimbabwe’s primary export mineral and main foreign-currency earner.
