Oliver Kazunga
Senior Reporter
FINANCE Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube says Zimbabwe’s economy is projected to grow by 3,5 percent in 2027 despite the threat of El Niño, as Government moves to build financial buffers to cushion the country against climate-related shocks.
He said the projected growth reflected the economy’s resilience, following anticipated growth of 5 percent this year and an outturn of 8,3 percent in 2025.
Addressing a virtual Press conference this morning at the ongoing 2026 International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, Prof Ncube said the Government remained confident of sustaining economic expansion despite the anticipated adverse effects of unfavourable weather conditions.
“Going into next year, even with the El Niño threatening us, we still expect a growth rate of 3,5 percent,” he said.
Prof Ncube said Zimbabwe was working on a financial buffer to help the economy withstand the anticipated climate shock, while continuing to implement its six-pillar response strategy.
El Niño poses risks to agricultural production, particularly in a country where rainfall patterns significantly influence crop output, rural incomes and food security.
A poor agricultural season could also place pressure on food prices, increase import requirements and raise the Government’s expenditure on drought relief and other interventions.
Prof Ncube said the Government had briefed international financial institutions on the country’s economic performance and its preparedness to deal with emerging challenges.
He attributed the projected growth to improvements in macroeconomic stability, which he said were being supported by prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
According to the minister, improved coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities was helping businesses plan and invest, while strengthening revenue collection.
He said the Government expected to end the year with a positive primary balance, although debt obligations remained a significant expenditure pressure.
Treasury was also working to build a financial cushion that would help meet the costs associated with the anticipated El Niño shock next year.
Prof Ncube said Zimbabwe’s economic recovery remained broad-based, with agriculture, mining and manufacturing contributing to growth.
However, the anticipated climate threat presents a key test for the country’s growth outlook, particularly if reduced rainfall affects agricultural output and increases the cost of supporting vulnerable households.
He said the projections come amid wider global economic uncertainties, including elevated commodity prices linked to geopolitical conflicts and continued high borrowing costs for emerging markets.
Prof Ncube noted that climate shocks were a global concern, requiring stronger international support for vulnerable economies.
He called for increased access to affordable, long-term financing to help African countries strengthen resilience, fund infrastructure and respond to climate-related challenges.
The Government’s ability to mobilise adequate resources and implement effective drought-mitigation measures will be critical to sustaining the projected 3,5 percent growth next year.
