adminbe on the lips of political scientists and historians.
Being the frontrunner for almost seven years, it was a big surprise to many that Odinga lost the election. Up to late 2010, Odinga was the man to beat. All pollsters gave him an unassailable lead. Even with the entry into the race of a number of candidates, Odinga topped the polls and he had no equal. His credentials as a champion of democracy could not be disputed.
But the intrusion of the ICC (with the fixation of its former chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo, to “make Kenya an example to the world”) changed Odinga’s presidential matrix. The ICC and its backers, aided by a number of Kenyan human rights NGOs, somehow managed to sway public opinion to the side of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. But it is not just the ICC that dented Odinga’s chances, some of his own blunders became costly. Below is a small sample of the mistakes:
Know your history and audience
That Odinga was a poor student of history and appeared not to have a clue about the message his audience wanted, was obvious during the election campaign. During the presidential debates, he criticised Kenyatta about how he would run the country and still face trial at the ICC. Odinga’s “you can’t run a government through Skype” played well into his opponents’ hands who had already branded themselves as the “Digital Team” offering new “transformative leadership”.
The faith and emotions connection
Kenyatta comes from a strict Catholic background and Ruto is a passionate Pentecostal Christian. Their ICC predicament was well choreographed in the Biblical term of “tribulations”. This charm offensive in the form of “prayer rallies” was not only aimed at winning the election but also winning sympathy. Images of Kenyatta and Ruto freely crying and kneeling in churches in supplication to the Lord, played a key role in connecting them to the voters. It worked and galvanised faith-based support groups.
Keep away from pollsters
For years, Odinga’s campaign relied heavily on pollsters, who continuously painted him as leading in the polls.
A strong ally as a running mate
It pays to have a socially strong, politically connected, and intellectually endowed running mate. Ruto, who was Kenyatta’s running mate, personified all these qualities and projected an image of dependability. Of all the running mates in the race, no one equalled Ruto’s prowess in foreign policy, his grasp of economic matters, understanding of security, and connection with the grassroots. The same cannot be said of Odinga’s running mate, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. Even when they paired, their body language betrayed the unease beneath.
Get your foreign policy right
Four weeks to the election, a number of foreign envoys, notably the Dutch, the British, the Americans and the French, came out strongly to urge Kenyans to reject the Jubilee Coalition led by Kenyatta. They threatened “consequences” (read sanctions) if Kenyatta and Ruto were elected. Their interference put the Jubilee coalition on a much-needed trajectory and handed them a golden opportunity to insinuate that the Western powers had somebody in mind. Odinga’s silence on the issue did not help matters either, more so when the envoys’ unwarranted sentiments clearly smacked of imperialism. In the end, Odinga was seen as a proxy for Western interests. Jubilee on the other hand was not afraid to confront the Western envoys, and Kenyatta and Ruto’s defiant posture on the campaign trail reflected the pride of an independent nation.
On your way up, be good and courteous to everyone
As Odinga rose in political stature to become prime minister, he relied heavily on the core support of regional leaders who coalesced around him in 2007. However as soon as he became premier, he began to antagonise his key backers who had grassroots support. Unbowed even as his party disintegrated, Odinga ignored all the warning signs of self-inflicted political isolation, thinking himself as the country’s political grand master. This would later become his undoing. The day he chased out Ruto as his deputy, he bid farewell to his presidential ambitions.
Empathise with your rivals’ misfortunes
As soon as it was confirmed that Kenyatta and Ruto were ICC suspects, Odinga showed no sympathy for the pair’s misfortunes. His Orange Democratic Movement’s side of the Grand Coalition government frustrated all efforts by the outgoing President Mwai Kibaki’s Party of National Unity to bring the ICC cases back to Kenya for trial. This lack of empathy led to Odinga’s core Rift Valley supporters deserting him.
Don’t forget good deeds and surround yourself with sober advisers
In 2007, Odinga had achieved political magnetism that no other Kenyan leader had ever done in the country’s history, apart from maybe the first president, Jomo Kenyatta. Odinga was surrounded by a retinue of academics and strategists on all matters government. At the time, he said all the right things, was ever sober, and had punchy quotes for reporters. He articulated government policy expertly.
Sadly after joining the government, he sidelined his core group of professional advisers and opted for individuals who did not have the same clout. One dejected advisor was his former constitutional and legal affairs aide, Miguna Miguna, who went on to write a tell-all book that exposed Odinga’s underbelly.
Keep your family out of politics
By the time Odinga realised that his family’s dalliance in public service was a liability for his presidential ambitions, it was too late.
Right from the time he was made premier, Odinga saw to it that members of his immediate family had plum positions in the civil service and diplomatic postings. As his image-makers struggled to spin this issue, Kenyatta and Ruto, who ensured that no such scenario confronted them, had already run away with the prize.Source: New African
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