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Tapiwanashe Mangwiro, Business Writer
FINANCE, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Mthuli Ncube has ruled out a possible downward revision of Zimbabwe’s five percent economic growth projection for 2026, citing solid fundamentals and a strong start to the year.
Responding to concerns over weakening global growth forecasts by institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Minister Ncube said there was no basis for altering Zimbabwe’s outlook.
“So the question is, why then would we revise the growth downwards if these fundamentals are still in place?” he said. “We still expect growth of at least five percent in 2026. We haven’t revised our growth going forward at all.”
The minister’s confidence is anchored in both retrospective and forward-looking indicators. He revealed that economic performance in 2025 had already exceeded expectations.
“First of all, there is the growth from last year for 2025. It is going to be higher than the 6,6 percent that we projected, because we did better than 6,6 percent, for sure,” he said, adding that official figures would be released soon.
Minister Ncube described the five percent growth target as conservative, particularly given favourable agricultural conditions.
“As you know, the growth rate always responds positively to a good rainy season — in other words, agricultural output,” he said.
“And once agriculture performs, a lot of other sectors that depend on it also do well.”
He pointed to a broad-based expansion, noting that all key sectors — including manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, and tourism — were performing well.
“There is no sector that is not recording positive growth,” Minister Ncube said.
Global risks, including commodity price shocks and inflationary pressures, are not expected to significantly dampen performance.
“We don’t see a big impact from the global shocks coming through oil, fertiliser, food, and inflation generally. These will be fairly well contained,” he said.
Minister Ncube also highlighted improvements in Zimbabwe’s external sector as a key driver.
“If you look at our current account balance expectation, last year our current account was a positive $1 billion.
This year, we expect it to double to just over $2 billion,” he said.
“That positive injection from the external sector into the economy clearly supports growth.”
Fiscal discipline remains central to the government’s framework.
“When you look at the budget deficit, it is also a potential leakage for economic growth that is fairly contained. We should be able to have a budget deficit at no more than half a percent of GDP,” Minister Ncube said.
He emphasised that macroeconomic stability provides businesses with the confidence to invest. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate declined to a record low of 4,1 percent in January 2026, marking the first time the country has recorded single-digit local currency inflation since 1997. The rate further eased to 3,8 percent in February 2026, according to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat).
“When you look at all the variables… it means that a five percent rate of growth is still warranted,” he said.
“Therefore, we are going to hold on to it until things change dramatically.”
The minister’s stance was reinforced by strong fiscal performance in the first quarter.
Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Finance, George Guvamatanga, said significant revenue over-performance — driven by improved tax administration and economic activity — anchored this success.
Mr Guvamatanga noted that reforms at the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (Zimra) were paying dividends.
“Zimra introduced a new digital system called TaRMS for tax collection, which has increased our efficiency,” he said.
He added that gains also reflected real growth: “If you look at the growth in the mining sector, the prices we are seeing within commodities have resulted in increased tax revenue.”
Enhanced enforcement has also tightened compliance.
“Tightening up at the borders and a reduction in smuggling… various measures have been implemented to reduce tax avoidance,” Mr Guvamatanga said.
He noted that the new system has also made it much more difficult for non-compliant businesses to obtain tax clearance certificates.
The results have been tangible. “For quarter one, revenues are up 24 percent against the target,” Mr Guvamatanga said, describing the performance as “remarkable.”
Importantly, this growth was achieved even as the Government implemented measures to shield consumers from rising fuel costs.
“Despite giving up some revenue to cushion citizens from fuel increases, we still believe we should be able to balance our books and continue with critical government programmes,” he said.
With domestic fundamentals remaining firm, authorities argue there is little justification for a downgrade. Instead, Zimbabwe is doubling down on its targets, confident that the momentum of early 2026 will be sustained throughout the year.
Online Reporter