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LONDON. — It’s 357 days from Saturday until the World Cup final will be contested at Twickenham. The expectation is that defending champions New Zealand will be there, and there is a groundswell of opinion backing England to join them.
While the all-conquering All Blacks say they are not reading any extra importance into today’s blockbuster fixture, Stuart Lancaster’s emerging side want – if not need – to make a statement of intent.
“We need to be beating the big teams, especially at home,” admitted scrum-half Danny Care, mindful of looming games against South Africa, Samoa and Australia. “We back ourselves to get there and be pushing them, come World Cup time.”
England believe they are a more-rounded and attacking side than when they thrillingly beat New Zealand at Twickenham two years ago.
A weakened England suffered a 3-0 series whitewash during this summer but were generally competitive bar a dreadful opening 34 minutes of the final Test in which they conceded 29 points.
Coach Stuart Lancaster and captain Chris Robshaw both believe that, for England to match the best, they must emulate the All Blacks by routinely turning pressure into points.
“As an England squad that’s the next step we need to take if we really want to push ourselves up there,” said Robshaw. “We need to be as clinical as these guys coming to town this weekend.”
New Zealand, who cannot meet England or play at Twickenham before the semi-finals at the World Cup next autumn, have only lost twice since lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in 2011.
Their weaknesses are negligible and their strengths numerous, not least a remarkable clarity of thought forged by mental skills coach Gilbert Enoka.
From Dan Carter’s drop goal against Ireland in 2012 to Ryan Crotty’s try Ryan Crotty’s try in Dublin a year later, to Conrad Smith’s try in the first Test against England this summer to Malakai Fekitoa’s converted try against Australia last month, the All Blacks have made a habit of winning at the death.
They will provide the ultimate test as England seek to prove they are more than just the leading European lights in the All Blacks shadow.
FACTS
Head-to-head
England beat New Zealand at Twickenham in December 2012 for the first time in 10 attempts – but have lost the subsequent four meetings.
England’s 38-21 victory in 2012 is their highest points tally and biggest margin of victory against New Zealand.
The All Blacks have won 31 of the 39 meetings, losing seven and drawing 26-26 in 1997.
New Zealand’s match day squad for Saturday boasts a combined 1,023 caps compared to England’s 437.
England
England have lost three successive games for the first time since November 2008. They last suffered four straight defeats in 2006 as part of a seven-match losing streak.
Under Stuart Lancaster, England have only won two of their 11 matches against Southern Hemisphere heavyweights New Zealand (W1, L4), Australia (W1, L1) and South Africa (D1, L3).
England have won eight of their last nine Tests at Twickenham, starting with victory over New Zealand in December 2012. Their only defeat in that time came against the All Blacks a year ago.
Fiji-born winger Semesa Rokoduguni will earn his first England cap after scoring six tries for Bath this season. Lock George Kruis and back Anthony Watson could make their England debuts as replacements.
New Zealand
The All Blacks have only lost twice in 39 matches since becoming world champions in 2011.
Their 22-match unbeaten run – which included a world record-equalling 17 straight wins – was ended last month by South Africa, when Pat Lambie’s 78th-minute penalty gave the hosts a 27-25 victory in the Rugby Championship (which New Zealand still went on to win).
New Zealand have averaged 31.5 points per game since the beginning of 2012. South Africa are second best with 27.5, followed by England with 24. Tries have accounted for 55% of the All Blacks points during that period, whereas 44% of England’s points have been tries.
Julian Savea scored a hat-trick of tries in the third Test at home to England in June, taking his tally against them to eight in four Tests. He has 29 tries in 30 caps.
British Army lance corporal Semesa Rokoduguni will make his England debut on the right wing after scoring six tries for Bath this season. Club-mate Dave Attwood, whose fiancée Bridget gave birth to their first child on Tuesday, starts his first Test for England since the tour to Argentina in June 2013, while Brad Barritt partners Kyle Eastmond in a new-look midfield.
New Zealand’s starting XV features four changes from the side that beat England in their last meeting in June.
Most notably, there’s a place at inside centre for Sonny Bill Williams, who scored two tries against the USA last weekend in his first start since a two-year stint in rugby league with the Sydney Roosters.
England: 15-Mike Brown, 14-Semesa Rokoduguni, 13-Brad Barritt, 12-Kyle Eastmond, 11-Jonny May, 10-Owen Farrell, 9-Danny Care; 1-Joe Marler, 2-Dylan Hartley, 3-David Wilson, 4-Dave Attwood, 5-Courtney Lawes, 6-Tom Wood, 7-Chris Robshaw (captain), 8-Billy Vunipola,
Replacements: 16-Rob Webber, 17-Matt Mullan, 18-Kieran Brookes, 19-George Kruis, 20-Ben Morgan, 21-Ben Youngs, 22-George Ford, 23-Anthony Watson
New Zealand: 15-Israel Dagg, 14-Ben Smith, 13-Conrad Smith, 12-Sonny Bill Williams, 11-Julian Savea, 10-Aaron Cruden, 9-Aaron Smith; 1-Wyatt Crockett, 2-Dane Coles, 3-Owen Franks, 4-Brodie Retallick, 5-Sam Whitelock, 6-Jerome Kaino, 7-Richie McCaw (captain), 8-Kieran Read,
Replacements: 16-Keven Mealamu, 17-Ben Franks 18-Charlie Faumuina, 19-Patrick Tuipulotu, 20-Liam Messam, 21-TJ Perenara, 22-Beauden Barrett, 23-Ryan Crotty. — BBC Sport
Online Reporter