Chronicle Editor
Ranga Mataire and Kuda Bwititi, Harare Bureau
A UNITED States-based strategic think-tank, which has strong links to MDC-Alliance vice-president Mr Tendai Biti, has tipped President Emmerson Mnangagwa to “resoundingly win the 2023 elections” in a revealing report released on Thursday.
Zanu-PF’s victory in the 2023 plebiscite, it predicts, will be predicated on a “rebound of the economy”, which is presently only being held back the El Nino-induced drought and the strangling effects of the illegal US-led Western sanctions against Zimbabwe.
The report, however, claims that regime change agents can only dislodge the ruling party from power by torpedoing its reform agenda. Dubbed “A New Zimbabwe: Assessing Continuity and Change After Mugabe”, the report was published by the Rand Corporation on February 6, 2020.
The author, Alex Noyes, is a member of the US-funded Zimbabwe Working Group that comprises former American diplomats who previously served at various missions in Africa. Mr Biti is understood to be a member of the Zimbabwe Working Group, despite not being an American diplomat.
Mr Biti stands out in the report as its source and chief-architect of the anti-Zimbabwe strategy that the US is signposting to pursue with in co-operation with its allies. In December 2018, former Republican Senator, Jeff Flake publicly revealed that Mr Biti was a close friend of the US.
Most revealingly, the think-tank says Zanu-PF victory at the coming polls will likely be premised on a massive rebound of the economy, which is presently being held back by the El-Nino-induced drought and the suffocating effect of the illegal US-led western sanctions against Zimbabwe.
Unless direct measures are taken to disrupt the ongoing reforms, the think-tank observes, President Mnangagwa “will remain in power and also be the favourite to win the 2023 elections”.
It, however, proposes “a raft of measures in co-operation with the MDC-Alliance and its affiliates to derail this positive trajectory in pursuit of regime agenda in Zimbabwe”.
The mooted interventions include deployment of concerted and co-ordinated efforts to subvert Zimbabwe’s security forces, withholding debt relief, new lendings, development support and investment into Zimbabwe, as well as brazenly meddling in Zimbabwe’s internal politics through so-called “professionalisation of opposition political parties”.
Under the guise of “professionalisation of opposition politics”, the report exposes the MDC-A’s declared intention to use food handouts as the mainstay of its rural penetration strategy during its campaign for the 2023 elections.
Last week, MDC-A leader Advocate Nelson Chamisa told the opposition party’s Mashonaland West provincial assembly that he had already secured funding for his rural outreach projects. However, the report also exposes the rift within the MDC-A leadership as Washington appears to be backing Mr Biti ahead of Mr Chamisa.
It further tears into the Mr Nelson Chamisa-led MDC-Alliance, claiming it has no capacity to hold countrywide demonstrations.
“The MDC is likely to continue to stage demonstrations in urban strongholds but, under current conditions, will likely remain unable to mobilise countrywide protests that could put significant pressure on the Government.”
Insiders in the MDC-A told our Harare bureau that the US is actively supporting a “palace coup” that would elevate Mr Biti, who is deemed to be more radical than Mr Chamisa.
“It does not require a rocket scientist to unpack why the US government is putting its full support behind Biti’s ongoing palace coup, which seeks to overthrow Chamisa at Morgan Tsvangirai House. They want a more radical approach to the regime change agenda. The Biti faction has characters such as Job Sikhala who are deemed to be more radical in confronting Government,” said a source within the MDC-A, who elected to anonymous for fear of victimisation.
Political commentator, Mr Richard Mahomva said Washington was alive to Zanu-PF’s capacity and ability to win the next polls and its only hope was to sabotage the economy in the fervent hope that the electorate will become disaffected with the ruling party.
“There is a clear asymmetrical economic warfare that the West is fighting to effect regime change. However, the West is not detached to Zimbabwe’s political interests and its perennial meddling in Zimbabwe politics is grounded on the need to pursue the post land reform agenda. The West is acknowledging the prominence of Zanu-PF, but it is also being exposed in terms of its wastage of resources in fighting against the spirit of economic decolonisation.”
The Rand Corporation is reportedly a subsidiary of the Todd Moss Centre for Global Development, a well-known US government think-tank.
derick.khumalo