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China’s bearish headwinds range from a real estate crisis and deflation to weak consumer confidence and crashing stocks. Yet none of that necessarily means another country will be able to take China’s place as the world’s top manufacturing powerhouse.
In a note Monday, Eurizon strategists Stephen Jen and Joana Freire said there’s little evidence of de-globalization, even as US-China trade relations have deteriorated amid tariffs and geopolitical strains.
Other countries such as Vietnam and Mexico — the latter which surpassed China as the US’s top trade buddy in 2023 — have spearheaded a reordering of global trade flows.
To that point, China’s market share of total US imports has cratered, but Eurizon said the countries that have exported more to the US in China’s place are themselves importing more than ever from China.
“[I]n this trade spat, the US may have ‘won’ but China has not ‘lost,'” Jen and Freire said.
Chinese exports’ market share in the US has tumbled from 22 percent to 14 percent since 2017, and the Trump administration’s policies have indeed had the intended effect of discouraging direct imports from China.
Still, China remains the biggest exporter in the world, with a global market share of about 15 percent, according to Eurizon.
Excluding distorted pandemic levels, that marks an all-time high. – Business Insider Africa
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