Diversify from agric-based economy

attack from global warming and climate change.
The risk of future climate change is very high, according to research. Its impact on agriculture, ecosystems and livelihoods will be catastrophic.
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that agriculture crop yields will fall by up to 50 percent between now and 2050.
The most severe impact will be felt in Africa. Indeed, some of the impact is evident in Somalia where a combination of drought, hunger and conflict has given birth to famine, the worst in more than half a century.
If people should respond to save agriculture, what is it they should do? Unfortunately, without God, the maker and creator of heaven and earth, any measure of action will at best be mitigatory and minimal.
Bearing any unforeseen developments, we shall discuss this issue at length in next instalments within the next two weeks.
But shall we then sit and watch climate change reduce our agricultural systems to zero?
In order to achieve sustainable development and solve the environmental problem they have caused, the want-to-know-it-all human race has also activated its systems for the strengthening of environmental policies that guard against global warming and climate change.
However, the world now understands that its ability to handle global warming and climate change is questionable and inadequate.
The resolve now is to search for and experiment with strategies to adapt to the changing global order.
The drought in Somalia has raised serious questions about the ability of the world to handle disaster situations caused by climate change.
The United Nations has declared a state of famine in Somalia and the rest of the horn of Africa with more than 10 million lives facing starvation.
The UN describes a famine situation where more than two lives in every 10 000 people are lost and malnutrition ranks above 30 percent.
At least six lives in every 10 000 people are being lost in Somalia today. Here at home, Government released 50 000 tonnes of maize for drought relief in the previous fortnight.
The prospect for more and persistent drought and floods in the future is high, raising the need for heightening disaster preparedness and ensuring food security.
Studies have shown that with rising temperatures together with erratic rainfall patterns, most of south and western Zimbabwe will become semi-arid to arid.
Because climate change is not an event but a process resulting from changes in weather conditions over time, it means therefore Zimbabwe is chasing a moving target to which it would have to carefully and constantly adjust.
Agriculture will be severely affected by climate change and global warming. Yet this is the backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy.
The challenge for the country is to diversify from its dependence on agriculture and simultaneously adapt strategies and implement policies that fit into the dynamics of the changes in climate and help save communities.
Climate change specialist and researcher Dr Leonard Unganai described Southern Africa countries as “lands of drought rather than abundant precipitation”.
This is very telling and revealing about the future of agriculture in Zimbabwe and Southern Africa as a whole.
Below is an extract from some of the interviews and discussions I have had with Dr Unganai regarding the effects of climate change on agriculture and adaptations available to communities.
Dr Unganai is also leading a pilot project in Chiredzi “Coping with Drought and Climate Change” which the Environmental Management Agency and the local office of the United Nations Development Programme jointly sponsor.
The Chiredzi project is an example of an adaptation project designed to generate lessons for adaptation among rural communities currently engaged in agriculture.
Jeffrey Gogo (JG): How real is climate change and global warming in Zimbabwe?
Dr Unganai (Dr U): The debate about whether or not the climate is changing is increasingly being replaced by the debate about what needs to be done to address the challenge.
In Zimbabwe, there is clear evidence that surface temperatures have warmed by about 0,6 degrees Celsius between 1900 and 2000.
This rate of warming is quite comparable to the global warming rate of 0,7 degrees Celsius over the same period.
The country’s rainfall pattern has also undergone significant modifications particularly during the period after the 1950s.
Some of the modifications include periodic delays in onset of the rains, prolonged mid-season dry spells, reduced number of rainy days, increase in climate variability and increase in extreme weather events particularly droughts and heavy rainfall events.
However, the total amount of rainfall across the country has not undergone any statistically significant changes.
JG: What is the future of agriculture in Zimbabwe in the face of global warming?
Dr U: Empirical evidence shows that agriculture is one of those sectors in Zimbabwe most sensitive to climate variability and change.
With any temperature increase, even without changes in precipitation crops will require more water to maintain biomass production at constant level.
Therefore, in future the number of rainy days in any cropping season may be critical in determining the success or complete failure of any farming effort.
Average crop yields among rural farmers in Zimbabwe generally average less than one tonne/ha in most agro-ecological regions.
These yields drop to near zero in most drought years, extreme flood cases and when prolonged mid-season dry spells are experienced.
Future climate change projections for rainfall, though less certain, point towards changes in rainfall patterns.
Increasing temperatures, changing seasons, increase in climate variability and increases in extreme weather events coupled with other socio-economic stressors are likely to lower crop yields and livestock productivity among resource poor rural farmers.
A fall in crop production leads to household food insecurity, loss of income-generating capacity, sale of livelihood assets, a rise in poverty and dependency on food relief.
Poor rainfall also results in poor pastures thereby affecting livestock productivity and availability of draught power.
All this will undermine the development of agriculture and community self-reliance.
JG: Your report suggests that droughts would be a common feature for Zimbabwe and the rest of Africa in the future. What adaptation measures should government and all stakeholders employ to ensure food security?
Dr U: To ensure food security in future, Zimbabwe and other countries need to learn from history and also the experiences of other countries.
Lessons we learn from past droughts show that societies fail partly for the following reasons: failure to anticipate a problem, failure to perceive a problem correctly once it has arisen and failure to try to resolve a problem once it has been recognised
There is no single adaptation measure that will be adopted to ensure food security in a changing climate.
Part of the problem is that climate change is dynamic – so we will always be fighting a moving target.
As a country we will need to adopt a risk management framework to respond to climate change impacts on agriculture and food security.
A suite of integrated adaptation strategies will therefore be required to ensure that some of the climate change risks are avoided, others reduced, some transferred and the remainder managed.
There is therefore room to adopt a range of technological solutions, diversifying the economy to be less dependent on agriculture, investing in early warning systems and paying attention to climate resilient development enablers such as public infrastructure.
Other enablers include financial services, policy framework to incentivise various actors to invest in climate change response and capacitating local authorities to integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation in local development planning and investment frameworks.
No doubt, climate change is real and there is terrifying evidence of its ugly effects.
What are you and your company doing to safeguard the environment from climate change? Let me know.
God is faithful.
Lets share ideas on the climate story.
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