Peter Matika, [email protected]
GOVERNMENT has urged farmers to resist panic planting or abandoning their fields over fears of an El Niño-induced drought, saying preparedness, crop diversification and informed decisions will be critical to the success of the 2026/27 agricultural season.
With forecasts pointing to the possibility of normal to below-normal rainfall during parts of the season, the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development has advised farmers to monitor local weather conditions, conserve soil moisture and plant according to prevailing conditions rather than relying solely on seasonal predictions.
Permanent Secretary in the ministry, Professor Obert Jiri, said the possibility of an El Niño-related drought did not mean the entire country would experience poor rainfall or that the season was destined to fail.
He said farmers should use the available forecasts to prepare their fields and make informed decisions while remaining ready to take advantage of favourable rainfall.
“As early as late September 2026, the availability of water and grazing was increased. From now until the end of the season, farmers need to be ready and make the most of every drop of rain,” he said.
Prof Jiri added that the livestock sector was relatively secure, but farmers should continue seeking technical advice on weather conditions, animal health and disease prevention.
The ministry has since outlined a phased approach to planting, urging farmers to use October to prepare land, secure quality seed and fertiliser, repair conservation structures and monitor rainfall instead of rushing to plant after isolated showers.
In November, farmers should assess whether rainfall has adequately wetted the seed zone and deeper soil layers, while considering short-term forecasts to establish whether sufficient follow-up rain is expected.
December could offer further planting opportunities where adequate soil moisture has been established, although farmers have been cautioned against treating it as a guaranteed safe planting window, said the ministry.
Those delayed into January have been advised to consider suitable short-duration crops and varieties in consultation with agricultural extension officers, while late planting of rain-fed maize in
February and March has been discouraged because of the limited growing period and moisture availability.
Prof Jiri said farmers should record rainfall in their respective areas, with at least 20 millimetres accumulated over three days providing an important indicator when assessing planting conditions.
“We encourage our farmers to record the rains that fall in their places. If they see the rains have fallen at least 20 millimetres in three days and the soil moisture is adequate for planting, they can proceed to plant,” he said.
However, he stressed that rainfall measurements alone were not sufficient, as farmers also needed to assess soil moisture and establish whether more rain was expected within the following three to 10 days.
Farmers have been encouraged to consult Agricultural Business Advisory Officers for guidance on soil conditions, planting decisions and short-range weather forecasts.
The ministry’s advice is informed partly by the 1997/98 agricultural season, which demonstrated why El Niño forecasts should not automatically be interpreted as an indication of widespread drought.
Despite strong El Niño conditions and expectations of drought at the time, widespread dry conditions did not materialise across much of Southern Africa. Variations in atmospheric circulation and moisture movement contributed to a different rainfall outcome.
Prof Jiri said the historical experience did not guarantee a similar outcome this season but demonstrated the importance of treating seasonal forecasts as probabilities that must be updated as weather conditions evolve.
Government has also activated Zimbabwe’s sovereign drought insurance cover under the African Risk Capacity (ARC), providing a financial safety net should the country experience a severe drought.
Prof Jiri confirmed that the Ministry of Finance had committed the country’s contribution to the African Union-backed insurance scheme, although any payout would depend on post-season assessments and whether the drought met the programme’s specified triggers.
“Our contribution has been committed by the Ministry of Finance, and we are in, which means that as a country, should the drought hit us, we are covered as a country,” he said.
The arrangement is designed to provide resources for drought response and food security interventions without placing the entire financial burden on Treasury.
Zimbabwe previously benefited from the ARC mechanism following the devastating 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought, which affected large parts of Southern Africa.
Meanwhile, the ministry has emphasised crop diversification, particularly in the country’s drier southern and western regions, where limited rainfall makes traditional maize production vulnerable.
Farmers in these areas have been encouraged to grow drought-tolerant crops such as sorghum, pearl millet, finger millet and cowpeas, which are better suited to lower moisture conditions.
Conservation agriculture has also been highlighted as an important strategy, with farmers
encouraged to practise mulching, timely weed control and maintain soil and water conservation structures to preserve moisture.
Staggered planting has been recommended to spread production risks instead of committing all available seed, fertiliser and labour to a single planting date. This allows farmers to take advantage of rainfall at different stages of the season while reducing potential losses from prolonged dry spells.
Prof Jiri said scattered rains expected towards the end of October were likely to become more widespread as the country moved into November, potentially creating broader planting opportunities.
However, the Meteorological Services Department has warned of a possible shift to normal or below-normal rainfall later in the season, particularly from late December into January.
With rain-fed agriculture remaining central to rural livelihoods and national food security, Government says the possibility of below-normal rainfall should encourage early preparation, responsible resource management and flexible planting strategies rather than panic.
