Online Reporter
Agriculture correspondent
Zimbabwe will continue to rely on seasonal forecasts from the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) before making final projections of the forthcoming 2026/27 summer cropping season, a senior Government official said.
Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development Permanent Secretary Professor Obert Jiri, in an interview, said the seasonal forecasts should be viewed as early warning systems rather than predictions of disaster.
Professor Jiri urged farmers not to panic over the projected El Niño during the 2026/27 summer cropping season, as the phenomenon does not always mean disaster.
To lessen the negative impact of the projected El Niño phenomenon, farmers were encouraged to prepare early.
Professor Jiri said although international climate models indicated a high probability of El Niño conditions developing, the most important message from current climate models was that the coming agricultural season had a greater likelihood of being drier than the previous one.
“There is a high probability of an El Niño, which some are calling a Super El Niño. As the Government, we are already taking note of these developments and planning for such an outcome, while awaiting confirmation from our Meteorological Services Department after the Southern African regional climate forecasting processes,” he said.
“When we plan, we plan for the worst-case scenario, but people should not panic. El Niño and La Niña are natural climate patterns that come and go, and their impacts are not always the same in every country or district.”
He explained that rainfall distribution often varies significantly across Zimbabwe, with some areas receiving good rains even during drought years, while others may experience dry conditions despite forecasts of above-normal rainfall.
“The forecast is a broad regional outlook and does not mean every part of Zimbabwe will experience the same conditions. Even in previous seasons, some traditionally dry areas received more rainfall than places that normally receive higher rainfall.”
Prof Jiri said Zimbabwe’s experience during previous El Niño episodes showed that forecasts did not always translate into severe drought.
He noted that during the strong El Niño events of the late 1990s and the 2015/16 season, the country did not experience the level of devastation recorded in some neighbouring countries.
“It is therefore important to understand that an El Niño forecast does not automatically mean disaster. It simply tells us there is a greater likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions, allowing us to prepare in advance.”
He likened seasonal forecasting to pregnancy, saying that while certain outcomes could be anticipated, many details remained uncertain until later.
“You may know that a woman is expecting a child, but you cannot predict every characteristic before birth. Similarly, climate models can indicate a drier season, but they cannot tell us exactly where dry spells will occur, how long they will last or which communities will be affected most.”
Prof Jiri said the Government’s priority was therefore comprehensive preparedness rather than focusing solely on the forecast.
He said preparations for possible dry conditions were undertaken every year regardless of whether forecasts point to El Niño or La Niña.
The Government has already put in place measures covering crop production, livestock production and key agricultural support systems to strengthen resilience.
“We have divided the country into agro-ecological regions, and our cropping recommendations are based on those natural regions. Farmers should grow crops that are suitable for their local climatic conditions.”
Farmers were encouraged to adopt climate-smart agriculture and plant short-season, drought-tolerant seed varieties to improve their chances of achieving good yields under uncertain rainfall conditions.
Livestock farmers have also been advised to preserve feed by producing hay bales and stockpiling other supplementary feeding materials before grazing conditions deteriorate.
Prof Jiri said the Government was simultaneously monitoring 22 key enablers of agricultural production, including irrigation support, agricultural insurance, cloud seeding, weather monitoring and input availability.
“These measures are important regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even if rainfall is favourable, farmers still require insurance against hailstorms and other weather-related risks, while cloud seeding may still be necessary in some areas.”
“Early warning should always lead to early action. Our responsibility is to ensure that, whatever the outcome of the season, Zimbabwe is fully prepared. Through proper planning, climate-smart agriculture and timely interventions, we can minimise risks and safeguard national food security,” he said.
The official national seasonal forecast is expected after the Meteorological Services Department completes its analysis following the regional climate outlook processes, providing farmers with more localised guidance ahead of the 2026/27 summer cropping season.
Bongani Moyo