Nqobile Bhebhe, Zimpapers Business Hub
LAWMAKERS and Cabinet ministers convene in Bulawayo this week to discuss Zimbabwe’s 2027 National Budget, with the looming El Niño-induced drought expected to top the Treasury’s next fiscal plan to bolster national food security, while sustaining interventions to drive economic growth.
The Parliamentary Pre-Budget Retreat, themed “Accelerating Economic Transformation and Building Resilience to Climate and Global Shocks,” has been slated for October 28-31.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in its September 17 review of Zimbabwe’s Staff-Monitored Programme that the economy grew by 8,3 percent in 2025, but is projected to moderate to five percent this year.
Zimbabwe’s forecast economic growth slowdown this year is partly due to the anticipated effects of a strong El Niño, which is likely to bring drought.
The Bulawayo retreat offers lawmakers a direct look at the potential humanitarian and economic emergencies that must shape the 2027 national fiscal.
Agriculture consistently accounts for 10 to 15 percent of Zimbabwe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making it one of the most important contributors to growth and development.
The sector is Zimbabwe’s second-largest export revenue generator, accounting for about 30 percent of total export earnings.
Key commercial drivers include tobacco (25 percent of sectoral contribution) and cotton (25 percent).
It provides 23 percent of total formal employment and anchors downstream jobs in transport, logistics and storage.
Economists believe that the 2027 National Budget should strike a careful balance between financing immediate drought mitigation measures and protecting viable capital expenditure needed to support production, attract investment and create jobs.
They opine that the key challenge for the Treasury is to meet urgent food security requirements without diverting resources from key infrastructure projects that underpin mining, manufacturing, agriculture and other productive sectors.
The consultations also fulfil Parliament’s constitutional responsibilities regarding public budgetary consultations provided for under Section 141 of the Constitution and relevant provisions of the Public Finance Management Act.
Addressing a post-Cabinet media briefing last Tuesday, Acting Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Professor Paul Mavima said the summer agricultural season faced two major threats: a predicted super El Niño and geopolitical tensions affecting prices of fuel, fertilisers and other essential supplies.
The Government’s agricultural resilience plan builds on lessons from the 2024-2025 season, when Zimbabwe experienced its worst drought since 1980.
Its six pillars include strengthening the strategic grain reserve, expanding climate-smart production, improving agricultural financing, mitigating livestock losses, enhancing imports and strengthening early warning systems.
Economist Dr Blessing Chiminya said the proposed US$500 million drought mitigation reserve should be supported by clear spending priorities, transparent controls and measurable outcomes to protect food security without weakening the broader fiscal framework.
“Treasury should ring-fence the proposed US$500 million drought mitigation reserve within a clearly defined financing framework, with transparent disbursement controls and spending priorities focused on strategic grain procurement, targeted social protection and climate-resilient agricultural production,” he said.
“The reserve should be deployed proactively to strengthen national food security, protect vulnerable households and ensure that farmers have access to critical inputs before the effects of the anticipated El Niño-induced drought intensify.”
Dr Chiminya said there should be measurable targets for food availability, agricultural output and assistance to vulnerable communities to help ensure the facility strengthened resilience without undermining other critical spending commitments.
“Ultimately, drought mitigation should be treated as a strategic investment in macroeconomic stability,” he said.
“By reducing future emergency grain imports, protecting agricultural production and limiting inflationary pressures arising from food shortages, the Government can strengthen resilience while containing fiscal risks.”
Dr Chiminya said protecting high-impact capital projects should be central to the fiscal framework, with expenditure adjustments falling primarily on non-essential recurrent spending rather than investments capable of generating economic returns.
Bulawayo businessman and former Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce Matabeleland Chapter vice-president, Mr Louis Herbst, said the proposed reserve needed strict financial controls and transparent reporting to ensure resources were available when required.
“The proposed US$500 million drought mitigation reserve should be ring-fenced, with separate accounting for the targeted US$250 million cash component and US$250 million grain component,” he said.
“Grain procurement should begin early, supporting local farmers where supplies are available at competitive prices, with imports arranged in advance where domestic production falls short of national requirements.”
Beyond agriculture, economic commentators say the quality of capital expenditure will determine whether the Budget supports a sustainable expansion of productive capacity.
Economic commentator, Ms Alice Chikonzo, said public spending should help translate mineral production into wider domestic economic benefits through processing, manufacturing and local procurement.
“However, the case for public spending must be grounded in commercial viability and demonstrable economic returns,” she said.
“Treasury will need to distinguish between projects that can mobilise private capital and expand productive capacity and those that risk creating additional fiscal obligations without sufficient economic benefits.”
Ms Chikonzo said mining allocations should be assessed against their potential to increase output, attract investment, expand local procurement and create employment.
Mining’s contribution to foreign currency earnings and capital inflows makes reliable electricity, adequate water supplies, efficient transport corridors and specialised skills important to sustaining expansion.
Investment in these areas would also support manufacturing and engineering businesses supplying the mining industry.
Water infrastructure is particularly important in a climate-stressed economy, where unreliable supplies can constrain households, manufacturing and agricultural production.
Tourism also requires coordinated investment in roads, airports, water supplies, electricity and digital connectivity to improve visitor access, lower operating costs and increase foreign currency earnings.
Bulawayo-based ConsultWorld Enterprise business strategist, Mr Busani Malaba, said expanding the tax base should primarily mean bringing more economic activity into the formal tax system rather than increasing taxes on businesses and workers who were already compliant.
“Treasury should strengthen tax administration, leverage digital payment systems and improve monitoring of high-value transactions to capture revenue from untaxed economic activities,” he said.
“This would broaden Government’s revenue streams while protecting the productive sectors that drive investment, employment and economic growth.”
Mr Malaba said Government has to strike a balance between revenue mobilisation and economic growth by ensuring that the tax regime remains predictable, competitive and supportive of investment.
Mr Norbert Ncube, a Bulawayo resident, said maintaining purchasing power could help support domestic demand, business activity and employment.
“Protecting disposable incomes is important because household consumption remains a critical driver of economic activity,” he said.
Ms Mildred Makanza said the Budget should be judged by its ability to convert public resources into tangible economic outcomes.
