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Zimbabwe is poised for major expansion in mining and industry and there is the present housing drive, both self-financed and with the national housing programme, that arises from the levels of economic growth we are now reaching.
And the whole lot can be delayed and derailed unless we can rapidly overcome the decades of neglect in expanding our electricity generation, with Zesa now predicting that maximum demand is likely to more than double within three years to almost 4 000 megawatts. It will require almost superhuman efforts to build that capacity, even if money and investment in power stations is available.
Most large power stations take time to build, even if equipment is off the shelf. A hydro station, such as Batoka Gorge, needs to have a very large dam wall designed and built; a large thermal station requires a lot of civil as well as electrical engineering. Gas and solar stations can be built quicker.
At the annual conference of the Chamber of Mines last week, Zesa consultant Engineer Cletus Nyachowe was remarkably forthcoming, as was needed before an audience that is a top consuming sector and is pushing growth really hard.
On the brighter side, there is the new 600MW coming on stream at Hwange in the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.
That can be followed with what amounts to another 400MW at Hwange Thermal as the six older units undergo a major rebuild over the next three years. This will take that older part of the station back up to at least 750MW, its proper output, and giving Hwange an output with the two new units of 1 350MW, more than a third of the 2025 requirement.
Kariba South will be then in second place again, with 1 050MW. As Eng Nyachowe noted, the rainfall patterns in Southern Africa mean the average output after a couple of reasonable rainy seasons in the catchment, and most Kariba water starts as rain in south-east Angola and north-west Zambia, is 600MW, roughly the historical average over the decades.
But we need to remember that demand fluctuates dramatically over 24 hours. You do not need much at 1am, but you need a lot during the peaks, the early morning as domestic and commercial demand overlap, and a lot in the early evening as they overlap again and then domestic demand is really high with geysers, stoves and heaters going flat out.
Kariba South Extension and the slightly earlier Kariba North Extension give Zesa and Zesco flexibility since hydro units can be switched on and off so quickly, so Zesa can run Kariba South flat out for a couple of hours at peak, but at 1am can just have it ticking over with a single turbine turning to meet the average.
As the almost 4 000MW prediction is for peak demand, the expanded and fixed up Hwange thermal and Kariba South can cope with almost 2 400MW for that demand.
The three old thermal stations in Bulawayo, Munyati and Harare at present deliver 30MW, and even that is surprising since the last unit was bought in the 1950s. The plan is for one to be revamped and re-equipped, adding say 100MW, not a lot, but useful. The revamp is delayed by reluctance of the original partner to be involved in coal, but presumably someone else can come in.
Then there are the private stations, the independent power producers. So far licences have been issued for around 7 000MW, but not much is at any site except grass and trees. Engineer Nyachowe expects around 500MW from this source by 2025. This might be pessimistic, since the new Disco steelworks at Manhize is also commissioning, in stages, a 500MW station at Hwange to assure its own supplies and a plethora of small plants are already in place or will be in place. But all that means we will have a little more than 3 000MW by 2025.
It is useless crying over split milk, but the decisions by the old dispensation and the old Zesa to ignore the best advice from the 1990s to relatively recently to build new stations were incorrect.
Yes, there was at that stage a glut of power in SADC so imports were easily the cheapest option but other countries also have growing economies and even South Africa is now having to plan huge investment to keep its older thermals running.
Imports are still possible, with Mozambique having a lot of investment, including a large gas station at Temane near Maputo, which we have already locked in 100MW and are seeking more, plus what we can draw from Cahora Bassa, and Zambia after fixing up its Kafue stations has a modest surplus.
But at the same time we need more urgent sources. Solar is a good possibility. Solar has the problem that it is daylight only, but we do have high daylight demand plus the oversized Kariba South station and the large lake mean we have what amounts to a large battery.
If we had a lot of solar on grid, we could cut back at Kariba South sharply in bright sunshine, storing the water not used, and then gun that station flat out in peaks. The failure of previous attempts should not stop the effort.
The plans for Batoka, and they cannot be realised in three years even if work started tomorrow, have the figure of 2 400MW split between Zimbabwe and Zambia, but for most of the year output will be a lot less as there is not much storage at that site and a major drought in southern Africa, or more precisely eastern Angola, also creates reduced output from all three Zambezi dams.
If gas is struck at Muzabani that can be tapped for power quite quickly, and in any case among the slow maturing independents there is the collection of smaller stations using coalbed methane in Matabeleland North. These need to be accelerated.
Zesa is now being creative over financing with joint ventures definitely on the cards or already being implemented, especially in the mining sector, a major user with foreign currency receipts allowing for both hard currency payments for imports and for financing the transmission lines required. Disco has been leading the way here. Deals could also speed up implementation of the independent stations, again following the lead of Disco which is building its own.
All this new capacity will push up electricity prices, which is not good news for consumers but on the other hand will concentrate minds wonderfully on how to use electricity far more efficiently, from the householder all the way to the largest mine. Engineer Nyachowe reckoned we can win 300MW we do not waste that way.
Zesa needs to push hard on all fronts. After all with more than 300 000 domestic users now wanting power, and a lot more on the way, Zesa needs even for this sector to have the finance and power to connect and then supply, plus the advance notice miners, industrialists and even irrigation farmers are giving for huge quantities.
So we need the savings, the repairs and rebuilding, the swathe of smaller stations and the extra imports. But we also need to be looking for our third large station as quickly as possible, the one we should have commissioned by now, and that will need some complex deal making.
We can do this, but Zesa plans for next decade need to become plans for next year. President Mnangagwa brought this up a couple of weeks ago, that Zesa needs a rocket under its managerial chairs.
Online Reporter