Online Reporter
Agriculture News Editor
MOST countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall from October 2025 to March 2026.
This was revealed on Wednesday at the 31st Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-31) held in Lusaka, Zambia.
This comes as preparations for the 2025/2026 summer cropping season are underway, with the Government having set a cereal production target of 3 207 000 tonnes (t) — 2 520 000t maize and 687 000t traditional grains.
The Meteorological Services Department said the national rainfall forecast for Zimbabwe will be released this week.
The regional forecast is compiled by national climate experts from the region, with contributions of data from global producing centres and regional partners.
According to the SARCOF forecast, most countries in the SADC region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for the October to December (OND) 2025 period, except the western fringes of Namibia, where below-normal rainfall is expected.
“The remainder of the region is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during this period of the 2025/26 season, including the island states of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles,” said a statement from the forum.
“The period of January to March (JFM) 2026 is expected to have normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the region, except for northern parts of the region (Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania), where normal to below-normal rainfall is expected.
“Above-normal rainfall is expected in the southwestern parts of the region, while the bulk of Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, with Comoros receiving normal to below-normal rainfall during the JFM 2026 period.”
Temperatures are also forecast to be mostly above long-term averages over the whole region during the rainfall season.
Agriculture preps
Meanwhile, farmers, especially smallholder and communal farmers, have started land preparations for the summer cropping season.
The Government has since set a target of 3 207 000t of cereals.
About 2 520 000t of maize, 450 000t sorghum, 220 000t pearl millet, 17 000t finger millet, 2 000t rice and128 250t of potatoes are expected.
Overall, the target surpasses the food and feed requirements by 33 percent.
“The Agricultural and Rural Development Authority (Arda) has been designated the food, feed, seed and oils security agent for the nation with a target to produce 500 000 tonnes of summer cereals from 100 000 ha (hectares), and 300 000 tonnes of winter cereals from 60 000 ha,” reads the plan from the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development.
The plan is anchored in climate-proofed interventions at both household and national levels to produce surplus food and feed, while making progress towards production of sufficient oils.
“The summer plan realises the importance of crowding in the private sector for funding for at least 40 percent of their annual raw material requirements from agriculture,” adds the plan.
“This requires strong coordination and strong monitoring and evaluation, from a whole-of-Government and a whole-of-sector approach. The summer cropping season will be funded through the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme, National Enhanced Agricultural Productivity Scheme (NEAPS), private sector while others will self-finance.”
The distribution of inputs will target households that have fulfilled the Pfumvudza/Intwasa pre-qualifying requirements of potholing or ripping a minimum of three plots each of 39m x 16m (0,0624ha), liming and organic matter placement, and mulch collection for at least one plot.
For cotton, production will be through the Government-enabled Cottco scheme and the private sector.
Zimbabwe Farmers union president Dr Shadrek Makombe said the major preparatory activities that are underway include ploughing and soil testing, preparing fireguards and procurement of inputs.
“Farmers are busy preparing for the summer crop. Those with early planted wheat have started harvesting, depending on the stage of the crop. Those doing tobacco are busy planting or preparing to plant their irrigated crop,” he said.
Zimbabwe Indigenous Women Farmers Trust president Mrs Depinah Nkomo said A1 and communal farmers were busy potholing for the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme.
“Most A1 and communal farmers are preparing holes,” she said.
“Inputs will only be distributed to those who would have completed the planting basins. Some commercial farmers are also preparing land using tractors. Farmers are optimistic of a good season.”
Agriculture expert Mr Ivan Craig, who is also Arda board chairperson, said early indications were that this year’s season will be similar to the 2024/2025 rainfall season.
“This is a better scenario whereby the first half of the season is going to be normal to below-normal and the second half is going to be normal to above-normal,” said Mr Craig.
“With this kind of forecast, when establishing a crop, we do not need a lot of water. We use the first half of the season to establish our crop and then, as we get into the latter part of the season, you find that our crops will be growing and they will be requiring more water or more moisture.
“As a result, you find that, as the crop is halfway through its vegetative growth, it is now bigger, more vigorous, requires more moisture, requires more nutrients, so that is the time the crops start flowering and start establishing fruits.
“If we get more water in the second half, there are certain crops which are recommended to be planted late in the season, like sugar beans, sunflower and cowpeas.
“So, the second part, being average to above average, goes well with the natural way of establishing crops. To me, it is a good forecast.”
