Online Reporter
Precious Manomano
Herald Correspondent
THE Government has stepped up preparations for the 2026/27 summer cropping season following forecasts indicating a high probability of an El Niño weather phenomenon, with authorities urging farmers to prepare early while avoiding panic as scientists continue to monitor evolving climate conditions.
Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Management Permanent Secretary Professor Obert Jiri said although leading global weather models indicate about a 90 percent probability of an El Niño developing, Government has already activated comprehensive measures to safeguard crop and livestock production and protect national food security.
The remarks come as the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) said international climate forecasting centres are projecting an 88 to 94 percent probability of an El Niño event developing during the 2026/27 rainy season. Historically, El Niño has carried a 65 percent chance of below-normal rainfall in Zimbabwe, although the department cautions that the current projections remain preliminary.
He said preparations were being guided by 22 agricultural production enablers covering crop production, livestock, irrigation, input supply, mechanisation, financing, insurance, cloud seeding and marketing to ensure farmers are prepared for any climatic outcome.
The Government’s preparedness strategy includes adhering to agroecological dictates, promoting climate-smart agriculture and crop varieties and traditional grains, strengthening irrigation development, improving water harvesting, expanding agricultural insurance, enhancing cloud-seeding programmes and ensuring timely availability of inputs.
Prof Jiri said farmers were being encouraged to adopt short-season and drought-tolerant crop varieties as well as traditional grains capable of maturing within uncertain rainfall periods.
Seed companies, he said, had already been engaged and encouraged to prioritise the production and distribution of climate-resilient seed varieties, while farmers should plant crops suited to their agro-ecological regions.
“What works in Mashonaland may not necessarily work in Masvingo. Farmers must produce according to their agro-ecological zones,” he said.
For livestock producers, the Government was encouraging early hay production, fodder conservation and stockpiling of supplementary feed to cushion animals against possible pasture shortages should dry conditions develop.
Prof Jiri said farmers should also diversify feeding systems to improve livestock resilience.
He also underscored the importance of agricultural insurance, saying farmers remain exposed to risks such as hailstorms even in seasons with good rainfall.
Despite the forecasts, Prof Jiri urged Zimbabweans not to equate El Niño with inevitable drought.
“These weather patterns come and go. Even when there is a prediction of an El Niño, it doesn’t mean it will happen exactly as predicted, local weather variability will happen from place to place,” he said.
He explained that global climate models indicate seasonal trends rather than precise and localised rainfall patterns in individual districts.
The MSD echoed that caution, saying forecasts issued this early are affected by what meteorologists call the “spring predictability barrier”, a period during which oceanic and atmospheric conditions can change significantly before the onset of the rainy season.
Because of this uncertainty, the department said Zimbabwe’s official seasonal forecast has not yet been issued and urged farmers, businesses and financial institutions not to make major decisions based solely on preliminary international climate model outputs.
Instead, the MSD said the country would release a more reliable National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF) forecast in August after the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), when additional scientific data would provide a clearer picture of the expected rainfall season.
In the meantime, the department encouraged farmers to continue with normal preparations while adopting climate-resilient practices, including water conservation, efficient moisture management and the selection of drought-tolerant seed varieties.
Zimbabwe has experienced El Niño seasons before but has often performed better than regional projections suggested. During the 1996/97 and 2015/16 El Niño events, the country escaped some of the worst impacts experienced elsewhere in southern Africa. Even during the severe 2023/24 regional drought, Zimbabwe’s agricultural losses were comparatively lower than those recorded in several neighbouring countries due to increased climate adaptation measures and improved preparedness.
The Government’s confidence is further strengthened by this year’s record agricultural performance.
Zimbabwe recently harvested an unprecedented 2 824 110 tonnes of maize from more than 1,9 million hectares, allowing the country to build significant strategic grain reserves ahead of the next production season.
The bumper harvest is expected to provide an important food security buffer as the Government intensifies preparations for the 2026/27 summer cropping season while awaiting the official August seasonal forecast.
Both the Government and the MSD have urged farmers to remain calm, continue preparing for the season and rely on official weather updates rather than speculation as climate conditions continue to evolve.
