Hamilton has form, Max has the points

LONDON. — The most intense Formula 1 championship fight for years will be decided over the next two weekends in the Middle East.

Red Bull’s Max Verstappen leads Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton by eight points.

Races in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi bring the season to a close, both on tracks that contain unknowns for the teams and drivers.

Verstappen has the advantage — with his points lead, he can become champion on the new street track in Jeddah this weekend if results go his way.

But, Hamilton has the momentum. 

He is heading into the climax of the season on the back of two convincing wins and with the performance trend clearly favouring his team. 

So much is at stake. 

If Verstappen wins, it will mark the start of a new era — his first drivers’ title, final confirmation of his status as the leading man of the new generation of F1 stars, and the end of seven years of Mercedes domination.

If Hamilton wins, he will set a new all-time record for championships. 

Already the most successful F1 driver in history, with more wins and pole positions than anyone else, and equal on titles with Michael Schumacher, an eighth crown would move him clear on every possible statistical measure.

For practical purposes, it’s simpler than that. In a normal race, without crashes, controversies or problems for either driver, the two title contenders will finish first and second.

They are faster than their team-mates, who will be subject to team orders to help them, and no other team is likely to be competitive enough to disrupt their battle.

In that context, what’s at stake is simple. 

If Verstappen beats Hamilton in Saudi Arabia, the Dutchman is highly likely to end the season as champion.

A Verstappen win with Hamilton second would extend the Red Bull driver’s points lead to either 14, 15, or 16 points, depending on who sets fastest lap, for which a point is awarded. 

With that margin, Hamilton would be relying on Verstappen hitting trouble in Abu Dhabi to have any chance of becoming champion.

But if Hamilton wins with Verstappen second, the gap between them will reduce to either nothing, one or two points. And that would set up a winner-takes-all showdown at Yas Marina.

There is a clear performance trend — and that favours Mercedes.

Looking at the cars’ pure pace in qualifying, over the first half of the season, the Red Bull was faster by 0.014 seconds on average.

But over the second half of the season, the tables have turned in Mercedes’ favour. Its average advantage in qualifying is 0.248secs over that period.

Nevertheless, qualifying pace does not necessarily determine who will win the race. 

And in any case it’s very difficult to predict which of the two teams will have the fastest car in Jeddah and Abu Dhabi.

On paper, both teams expect the Mercedes to be the quicker package. It is faster on the straights, and both circuits are what are known as “power-sensitive” — ie engine performance has a large effect on lap time.

But their relative competitiveness has not always followed the expected trends this season. 

Take the US Grand Prix in Austin last month, for example. 

A Hamilton stronghold ever since its first race in 2012, Red Bull turned the tables on Mercedes this                                                                          year. 

They had the quicker car and Verstappen won the race.

Hamilton believes it is impossible to predict which car will suit which circuit best this season, so tight has it been, so much has form fluctuated. — BBC Sport.