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Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
The resilience of the industrial sector continues, as evidenced by the April 2025 Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency (ZimStat) Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding agriculture, which remained at desirable levels across currencies.
“The month-on-month rate of change in April 2025 was 1,8 percent, gaining 1,9 percentage points on the March 2025 rate of –0.1 percent,” the report stated, underscoring a sharp rebound after muted growth in the previous month.
In concrete terms, prices as measured by the all-items ZiG PPI increased by an average of 1,8 percent from March 2025 to April 2025.
“Key contributors to this uptick included the mining of non-ferrous metal ores, manufacture of other food products, mining of hard coal, and manufacture of tobacco products, reflecting renewed demand and higher global commodity prices,” ZimStat said.
PPI measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
It is often seen as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, since higher producer prices can be passed along the value chain to households.
In essence, when the PPI rises, businesses face higher input costs, which may ultimately translate into higher retail prices.
Conversely, a falling PPI can signal easing cost pressures and potentially lower future consumer inflation.
On a year-on-year basis, the ZiG PPI showed an astonishing 115.0 percent increase in April 2025 compared with April 2024.
The agency added, “Meaning prices as measured by the all-items ZiG PPI increased by an average of 115.0 percent from April 2024 to April 2025.”
Such double-digit annual growth highlights the enduring legacy of elevated inflation and exchange-rate pass-through on domestic production costs, and in this particular instance, it was due to a once-off currency devaluation in September 2024.
In contrast, the USD Producer Price Index painted a different picture. The report noted that, “The month-on-month rate of change in April 2025 was –0.3 percent, shedding 0.3 percentage points on the March 2025 rate of 0.0 percent.”
Resultantly, “Prices as measured by the all-items USD PPI decreased at an average of –0.3 percent from March 2025 to April 2025.”
A clutch of sectors, ranging from the manufacture of glass and glass products to the mining of non-ferrous metal ores and the manufacture of tobacco products, did not contribute to the rise or decrease of the index, suggesting a broad-based tempering of dollar-denominated producer prices.
However, year-on-year, the USD PPI climbed 12,7 percent, signalling moderate inflation when measured in foreign currency terms.
The Weighted Producer Price Index, which assigns sectoral weights based on output shares, stood at 156.81 in April 2025 versus 155.77 in March.
“The month-on-month rate of change in April 2025 was 0,7 percent, gaining 0,9 percentage points on the March 2025 rate of –0,2 percent,” ZimStat added. This implies that, “Prices as measured by the all-items Weighted PPI increased by an average of 0.7 percent in the period March 2025 to April 2025.”
Contributions came mainly from the manufacture of food products and mining and quarrying products, while categories such as the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and the manufacture of beverages and tobacco products remained flat.
On an annual basis, the Weighted PPI jumped 56.8 percent, reflecting lingering cost-push inflation across the economy.
Namatai Maeresera, an economic analyst, cautioned that the disparity between local-currency and USD PPI readings underscores the impact of exchange-rate fluctuations.
“While the 1,8 percent month-to-month rise in the ZiG PPI signals continued cost pressures, the –0,3 percent fall in USD terms highlights how local currency depreciation is amplifying domestic inflation,” he observed.
Mr Maeresera added that, “Policymakers must tread carefully, balancing efforts to stabilise the exchange rate with interventions to boost productivity and ease supply-side bottlenecks.”
Tinevimbo Shava, an economist, agrees that the year-on-year surge in the ZiG PPI is alarming but sees potential for easing if global commodity prices moderate and the local monetary chiefs continue to be prudent.
“An annual increase of 115 percent is clearly unsustainable, but if metal ore and coal prices stabilise, and if domestic capacity constraints are addressed, we could see PPI growth decelerate later in 2025,” he said.
Mr Shava also noted that the flat sectors in both USD and weighted indexes point to pockets of resilience, “Where producers have managed to hold prices steady, that is a sign of competitive pressure or supply improvements that could help anchor broader inflation expectations.”
Looking forward, the trajectory of the PPI will hinge on multiple factors: continued currency stability, global commodity trends, energy availability, and domestic supply-chain capacity.
Online Reporter