New US Tariffs: 8 COMESA countries to record decreased trade volumes

THE Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat says eight of its member states could encounter serious trade challenges on the wake of the new reciprocal tariffs instituted by the Donald Trump-led United States government.

The affected countries include the Democratic Republic of Congo: 11 percent, Libya: 31 percent, Madagascar: 47 percent, Malawi: 17 percent, Mauritius: 40 percent, Tunisia: 28 percent, Zambia: 17 percent and Zimbabwe: 18 percent.

This could lead to significant reductions in trade volumes for the concerned countries in the year 2025, warned COMESA in a latest update issued Tuesday.

In its recent policy brief titled “Implications of the U.S. Tariff on COMESA: A Game Theoretic Approach to Trade Negotiations” compiled by the Division of Trade and Customs at the COMESA Secretariat, the 21-member bloc said while the U.S. is not a primary trading partner for the COMESA region, its increased tariffs are poised to create significant supply and demand shocks across member states.

The resulting high production costs and consumer prices in the U.S. would likely contract its economy and further depress demand for exports from COMESA countries, said the bloc.

Key exports from COMESA, such as Kenyan textile products and Zambian copper, will face inflated prices in the U.S. market, while the prices of essential capital goods from the U.S. are set to spike.

Citing official trade statistics, COMESA said its share of exports and imports to the U.S. ranged between three to four percent and four to five percent respectively during the years 2019 to 2023.

COMESA’s director of trade and customs, Dr Christopher Onyango, noted that the U.S.-Africa trade framework has historically been defined by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) enacted in 2000.

This act granted preferential access at zero tariffs for numerous products from qualifying African countries to the U.S. market, reflecting their relatively lower socio-economic development levels.

“The new tariffs posed by the U.S. represent a stark departure from AGOA’s intent, which was originally advocated by the U.S. government itself,” said COMESA.

“The uncertainty around AGOA raises concerns that these tariff policies may result in substantial production cuts and massive job losses across African economies.

At the moment, 35 African nations qualify for AGOA, including 10 COMESA member states – Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eswatini, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, and Zambia.

Moreover, COMESA has said there is heightened apprehension regarding potential retaliatory measures from major trade partners like China and the European Union.

These entities, which represent COMESA’s largest export and import markets—accounting for 24 percent to 40 percent and nine percent to 13 percent of trade respectively during the period from 2019 to 2023—could exacerbate the challenges facing COMESA countries, said the bloc.

Estimates already suggest that the combination of U.S. tariffs and possible retaliatory tariffs could result in a global Gross Domestic Product decline of about 0.43 percent, which could adversely affect demand for COMESA exports, which heavily relies on extra-COMESA trade.

In response to this pressing economic threat, the COMESA policy brief advocates for the adoption of a variable cooperative game strategy.

“This includes facilitating open negotiations and binding agreements with the EU, China, Japan, India, middle East and other like-minded nations to open trade doors,” said the bloc.

“The African Union Commission is urged to engage with the U.S. government to discuss the ramifications of the ongoing tariff disputes and to reinforce the need for a rule-based international trading system.”

Further, COMESA has reiterated calls for the consolidation of continental and regional economic integration to amplify the region’s voice to boost intra-African trade and investment.

By implementing regional value chains and reducing dependency on external markets, this could enhance Africa’s economic resilience in a big way.

Furthermore, increasing investment from African financial institutions including the African Development Bank (ADB), ExIM Bank, Trade Development Bank, among others, to enhance physical infrastructure—such as roads, railways, and airports—is essential to support connectivity and sustainable industrial development, said COMESA.

Despite the tariffs threat, the regional bloc has reiterated its commitment to protecting the interests of its member states and advancing initiatives that will strengthen economic resilience across the region.