THE Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) faces a major reduction in its water allocation for electricity generation at Kariba Dam in 2027, as regional climate authorities brace for strong El Niño conditions and below-normal rainfall across Southern Africa.
According to a press statement released today by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) — the bi-national body managing the shared reservoir on behalf of Zimbabwe and Zambia — ZPC has been allocated 11,5 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water for power generation in 2027.
This represents a steep 36,1 percent decrease compared to the 18 BCM allocated to Zimbabwe for 2026.
The same 11,5 BCM allocation will be granted to Zambia’s power utility, ZESCO Limited, bringing the total combined 2027 allocation for both utilities to 23 BCM.
Contrast with 2026 supplies
The reduction comes despite a rebound in Lake Kariba’s water levels during 2026.
Supported by substantial inflows during the 2025/2026 rainy season, the ZRA had revised the combined 2026 allocation upward from 30 BCM to 36 BCM, giving ZPC and ZESCO 18 BCM each.
As of October 14, 2026, Lake Kariba stood at 480,65 metres above sea level, holding 23,77 BCM of usable water (36,68 percent of live storage capacity).
This marks a dramatic recovery from the same date in 2025, when the lake level languished at 477,34 metres, with usable water down to just 8,25 BCM (12,75 percent live storage).
Furthermore, as of mid-October 2026, ZPC retains 6,13 BCM — or 34,09 percent of its 2026 water allocation. ZESCO, by comparison, retains 3,53 BCM (19,66 percent) of its allocation.
The ZRA projects that Lake Kariba will enter 2027 with 16,24 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 25,10 percent live storage capacity.
*El Niño shadow drives precautionary strategy *
The decision to trim water allocations for 2027 is driven by climate forecasts originating from the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) held in Swakopmund, Namibia, in late August 2026.
Climate experts warn that developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are expected to intensify, bringing below-normal rainfall to much of Zimbabwe and southern Zambia throughout the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season.
“By 31st December 2027, this level of utilisation is projected to result in a closing lake level of 476,80metres, with 5,83 BCM of usable water remaining, equivalent to 9 percent live storage,” stated ZRA acting chief executive officer Mr Peter Kapinga.
The ZRA emphasised that daily monitoring and joint technical committee meetings with both utilities will continue in order to ensure strict compliance with water caps and maintain the long-term viability of Kariba Reservoir.
