adminTrevor Shiri Correspondent
The Daily News and some men-of-the-cloth, namely businessman-cum-pastor, Shingi Munyeza, have of late resurrected the tired disaster narrative, which was the order of the day in 2008.
Ironically, the envisaged disaster never befell the country. It is common cause that the country is facing a cash crunch as a result of a motley host of factors, among them, externalisation, money laundering, cash-syndrome, depressed exports, imports of products and services readily available in the country, just to mention the more important ones. Before unpacking the issue at hand, a few headlines from the Daily News would suffice.
Cash shortages hit cooking oil sector – 30 May 2016;
ZANU PF marchers ‘kissing shoes of a failed leadership’ – 31 May 2016;
Basic food prices soar . . . as Zim economy continues to die – 1 June 2016;
Dark days loom ahead – 1 June 2016;
Zim: A nation in conflict with itself – 1 June 2016; and
‘RBZ’ seizing export proceeds – 1 June 2016.
Similarly, Munyeza, touting himself as a “Marketplace Apostle”, penned an article titled “Severe Turbulance Ahead, fasten Your Seat Belt” whose preamble reads “with the Government spending more than its revenues, the country importing more than it is exporting and the drying up of FDI due to unfavourable investment policies, rampant and unabated corruption and the imminent introduction of the infamous bond notes; as a marketplace apostle I would like to give warning to the ordinary citizen.”
Munyeza “foresees” a season of cash shortages, water shortages, food shortages, Government reprisals and recriminations, political activism and unrest, among a litany of so-called prophecies. Munyeza is trying to carve himself as a prophet of doom.
It goes without saying that the policy interventions being implemented by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to stem the externalisation of the US dollar have had some teething hick-ups.
However, to describe those hick-ups as signs that the economy of Zimbabwe is dying is being overly alarmist. Markets, let alone consumers, tend to react with haste to any suggestion or remote indication of shortages of basic commodities.
The challenges being faced by cooking oil producers in importing crude soya oil as a result of delays in the payment system which the RBZ is implementing, should not be interpreted as an indicator of a dying economy. The depressed balances in the Nostro accounts of banks is just, but a symptom of the problem which the multi-faceted interventions by the RBZ seeks to reverse and correct. The import priority list, which cooking oil producers are on, is an indicator of how Government prioritises this basic commodity.
As a result of alarmist reportage, the market responds for speculative purposes. This explains the sudden 20 percent increase in the retail price of cooking oil. Producers have not increased the wholesale price of the commodity yet in light of a 5 percent increase in the international price of crude soya bean oil. Retailers are now capitalising on the perceived, or rather, expected shortage of the commodity to profiteer. Even if one were to factor in the 5 percent increase, how does one explain a 20 percent increase in the price of cooking oil? Surely, the answer lies in speculative behaviour, hinging on profiteering.
In the same vein, consumers naturally engage in panic buying of this basic commodity, especially with the 2008 memories still fresh in their minds. Who can blame consumers for hoarding the commodity in light of the over-blown reportage and “prophesies” on allegedly looming shortages? The queues at various banking halls are not helping the situation.
In an ordinary man’s mind, there are now two indicators of an economy in recession.
The foregoing scenario feeds into the opposition-penned disaster narrative whose sole purpose is to portray an imploding economy and a “failed” leadership. The situation has not been helped by excitable pastors, taking advantage of their status to “prophesy” doom and gloom.
While Zimbabwe is a country that respects freedom of religion, and indeed freedom of expression, such alarmist predictions from fly-by-night prophets does not bode well for a country such as Zimbabwe which has plenty of Christians — Christians who take the word of “holy men” seriously.
Online Reporter