Oil jumps as OPEC+ maintains output hike

Oil prices rebounded more than $1 a barrel yesterday after producer group OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, which came as a relief to those who expected a bigger increase.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.34, or 2.13 percent, to $64.12 a barrel by 0346 GMT after settling 0.9 percent lower on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.31 a barrel, up $1.52, or 2.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent decline in the previous session.

Both contracts were down more than 1 percent last week.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies decided on Saturday to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the third month the group known as OPEC+ increased by the same amount, as it looks to wrestle back market share and punish over-producers.

The group had been expected to discuss a bigger production hike.

“Had they gone through with a surprise larger amount, then yesterday’s price open would have been pretty ugly indeed,” analyst Harry Tchilinguirian of Onyx Capital Group wrote on LinkedIn.

Oil traders said the 411,000-bpd output hike had already been priced into Brent and WTI futures.

“The headline motive has centred on punishing OPEC+ members like Iraq and Kazakhstan that have persistently produced above their pledged quotas,” said the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in a note yesterday.

Kazakhstan has informed OPEC that it does not intend to reduce its oil production, according to a Thursday report by Russia’s Interfax news agency citing Kazakhstan’s deputy energy minister.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate OPEC+ will implement a final 0.41 million bpd production increase in August. — Reuters

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