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Sifelani Tsiko Agric, Environment & Innovations Editor
An El Niño-induced drought has sharply dented grain harvests prospects for the main grain producing countries in southern Africa with the 2024 maize output forecast set to drop to a lower than expected level, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says.
According to the latest global cereal supply and demand brief, inadequate rains in the region’s key grain producing countries – South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe will result in a decline in the harvest affecting the food security position of the entire region.
“In South Africa, recent rainfall deficits have sharply dented yield prospects, and the country’s 2024 maize output is forecast to drop to a near-average level, below earlier expectations. Dry-weather conditions are affecting neighbouring countries and have sharply curtailed 2024 maize production prospects,” the FAO said in its latest brief.
The FAO cereal supply and demand brief provides an up – to – date perspective of the world cereal market.
The UN agency’s forecast for global cereal stocks ending in 2024 has also been raised since last month by 1,5 million tonnes to 896,9 million tonnes, representing a 24 million tonne (2,8 percent) increase above their opening levels.
As a result, the FAO says the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio should be expected to increase from 30.9 percent in 2022/23 to 31.1 percent in 2023/24, pointing to a continuing comfortable global supply situation.
For the 2024 main season, maize production in Brazil is set to fall compared to the previous season due to lower crop prices while total maize production in Argentina is expected to recover due to better rains.
Other SADC countries which also produce some grain such as Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia are also battling the drought.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says the summer grains and oilseed harvest will be around 17,4 million tonnes, down 13% on 2023 of figures.
The figures are the first production estimates for the 2023 – 24 cropping season.
Zimbabwe’s main maize grain harvest is expected to fall significantly to 1,1 million tonnes in 2024 from a high of 2,8 million tonnes projected for the 2023 -2024 farming season due to an El Nino-induced drought.
Most countries in the region have already flagged sharp grain deficits which are threatening the region’s food security.
Zimbabwe needs about 1,8 million tonnes of maize a year for human consumption and another amount for livestock.
The country’s monthly consumption rate is 23 000 tonnes and as at November 2023, the Government said the available grain would last around 10 months.
Zimbabwe has removed Value Added Tax (VAT) on rice and potatoes, relaxed importation restrictions on maize, wheat and other basic food items as part of measures to mitigate against the impact of the current drought.
“The relaxation of grain imports being maize and wheat is most welcome in ensuring that retailers and wholesalers can sufficiently stock up to mitigate against the expected El Nino induced drought. The removal of VAT on potato seed is also welcome as it provides yet another basic food substitute,” the Confederation of Zimbabwe Retailers (CZR) said in a statement.
The country’s economic growth is also projected to slow to 3,5% in 2024 from 5,5% in 2023 owing to a devastating drought.
Zambia, another major maize grain producer, has declared the drought a national disaster and emergency.
The country has lost nearly 1 million hectares of maize to the current drought.
Zambia exported more than 1,1 million tonnes of maize in the 2022 – 2023 period and had a record carry – over stock of 1,5 million tonnes. It exported maize to East Africa and other neighbouring countries.
The country had its maize output to grow by 23 percent to 3.3 million in the 2023 -2024 farming season.
Rainfall deficits in most southern African countries will have substantial and adverse impacts on grain harvests and push millions into food insecurity.
Online Reporter