Business Reporter
Zimbabwe is making steady progress towards durable macroeconomic stability — supported by improving foreign currency inflows and key policy reforms — but must navigate a complex landscape of global geopolitical friction, inflation risks and regional growth disparities, according to insights shared at the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries Strategic Intelligence Forum.
Organised in partnership with Zimpapers at Hyatt Regency The Meikles Harare, the executive development forum convened chief executives, board members, policy makers and development partners to evaluate Southern Africa’s growth prospects, domestic competitiveness, and corporate survival strategies.
Presenting a detailed breakdown of Southern Africa’s economic trajectory, Ms Chiedza Madzima, head of operational risk at BMI Fitch International, noted that Zimbabwe’s overall country risk profile has recorded tangible improvements over recent quarters.
BMI is a prominent British multinational research firm and a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions. It is widely recognised as one of the world’s leading providers of macroeconomic data, country risk analysis and geopolitical forecasting.
Ms Madzima said that through improved exchange rate stability, lower measured inflation and rising foreign currency inflows, Zimbabwe is beginning to close the gap with regional peers.
The ZiG-to-US dollar exchange rate has remained broadly steady through the first three quarters of 2026, oscillating within a tight range of ZiG 25 to ZiG 27 per US$1.
Foreign currency receipts reached an all-time high of US$15,9 billion for the first nine months of 2026, representing a 33,7 percent increase compared to US$11,9 billion during the same period in 2025.
Reserves climbed to nearly US$2 billion in September 2026 (providing about two months of import cover and covering the ZiG reserve money base multiple times.
Annual ZiG inflation remained low and in the single digits, hitting a historic low of 2,9 percent in August 2026 before edging slightly to 3,7 percent in September 2026 due to adjustments in fuel and rental costs.
“Zimbabwe’s overall country risk is starting to close the gap with regional peers,” Ms Madzima said.
“Key improvements are showing in the short-term picture — particularly around economic growth and financial market conditions. The real task now is building sustained confidence and buffering external resilience factors.”
Addressing the transition toward a mono-currency framework, Ms Madzima emphasised that operational foundations are taking shape — evidenced by the Reserve Bank’s mono-currency barometer score of 50,1 percent — but cautioned that the US dollar remains deeply embedded in domestic savings and commercial transactions.
Maintaining strict fiscal discipline, keeping inflation low and building import cover beyond its current level of under two months toward the three-month target will be critical to deepening local currency adoption.
Zimbabwe’s annual economic growth is projected to hover near the regional average of around 4 percent through to 2030, underpinned by solid mining investments and commodity exports. However, climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and persistent power-generation bottlenecks continue to act as speed bumps to faster acceleration.
Across Southern Africa, growth presents a mixed picture. South Africa continues to lag with sub-2 percent annual growth through 2030, while Zambia outperforms through copper expansion.
Mozambique and Namibia lead medium-term regional performance, boosted by major oil, gas and mineral developments.
Broadly, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to expand by just over 4 percent in 2026, outperforming a slowing global economy pegged at 2,3 percent amid restrictive monetary policies.
Despite regional momentum, African economies face severe external headwinds. Global inflation is expected to keep central banks restrictive for longer, maintaining pressure on local currencies and raising borrowing costs across emerging markets.
Furthermore, tensions surrounding the US-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to compromise global shipping corridors.
BMI Fitch projects Brent crude will average around US93 per barrel before easing to US$81 next year, while essential feedstocks such as bitumen and sulphur face supply-chain repricing.
On trade dynamics, African markets have largely been shielded from sweeping US tariff shocks via exemptions like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Direct impact on Zimbabwe remains under 4 percent in tariff exposure, representing roughly 0,5 percent of total direct exports.
However, indirect risks loom large: Zimbabwe’s primary trading partners — China, South Africa, and the UAE — absorb over 80 percent of its exports.
Slower demand from these giants could filter directly into the domestic economy.
“The main risk for Zimbabwe is really the risk of weaker demand that may come from South Africa, China, and the UAE,” Ms Madzima warned.
Locally, Zimbabwe’s manufacturing export base remains stubbornly narrow. High domestic availability of US dollars has weakened the immediate urgency for firms to seek foreign revenue through cross-border trade.
While agencies like the Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency (ZIDA) have approved over US$1,6 billion in projects, Ms Madzima stressed that tax incentives alone cannot fix underlying structural frictions, calling for swift labour reforms and solar power adoption to counter energy grid vulnerabilities.
Looking beyond macro-shocks, executives were urged to embrace technological disruption — specifically artificial intelligence — by redesigning business processes rather than using AI merely as a labour substitute.
“Technology is like salt. It’s not very interesting on its own, but when you add it to something, it can be truly transformative,” Ms Madzima stated.
Complementing the macro-level analysis, Ms Nina Al-Ghussein Norrman, senior consultant and future strategist at Kairos Future, delivered an immersive masterclass challenging corporate leaders to move away from reactive decision-making and embrace strategic foresight to safeguard earnings.
“Whatever organisation you are, even the top-level global organisations, they have limited resources,” Ms Norrman noted.
“So it’s all about putting your resources where it will matter the most.”
Drawing on Peter Drucker’s foundational strategy principles, Ms Norrman warned against relying on historical business models in volatile markets.
“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic,” Ms Norrman quoted, pointing out that while 83 percent of executives expect significant operating changes, only 6 percent feel prepared.
Citing historical examples — such as Shell’s scenario planning success during the 1970s energy crisis versus Kodak’s collapse due to entrenched legacy models — she urged Zimbabwean firms to apply structured foresight frameworks like TAIDA (Tracking, Analysing, Imaging, Deciding, Acting) to stress-test corporate plans across multiple potential economic futures.
“Change creates tension,” Ms Norrman said, reminding attendees that foresight requires active questioning of legacy assumptions.
“Foresight is a lot about getting the fuel to challenge assumptions… asking uncomfortable questions is the first step.”
