Tawanda Musarurwa Zimpapers Business Hub
ZIMBABWE spent US$2,64 billion on manufactured imports in the first nine months of 2026 — a third more than in 2025 — creating a growing opening for the recovering industrial sector to compete with foreign suppliers on price, quality and reliability.
According to the latest import data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat), the
US$2,64 billion covers 246 product categories, ranging from fertilisers and steel to cement and
clothing, but excluding fuel, machinery, vehicles, minerals and cereals.
Total imports reached US$9,76 billion over the same period, up 34,8 percent.
Local manufacturers can win markets currently dominated by imports, though high input costs and
limited finance may prove stumbling blocks.
A report by Africa Economic Development Strategies (AEDS), a think tank led by founder and
executive director Dr Gift Mugano, estimates that Zimbabwe imports about US$3 billion worth of
manufactured products annually that could be produced locally.
These imports include pharmaceuticals (US$330 million), fertilisers (US$337 million), iron and
steel (US$300 million), and tissue and paper (US$200 million).
Observers caution, however, that an import bill is not a pipeline of factories. Investors must
establish whether local plants can match imports on cost, consistency and quality, after accounting
for the machinery and chemicals they themselves must import.
The report notes that manufacturing accounted for 16,8 percent of gross domestic product in 2025,
rising to 17,1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. According to the CZI Annual Manufacturing
Sector Survey 2025, output rose 13 percent and turnover 12 percent, while capacity utilisation
reached 55,9 percent — the fourth-highest level since 2009.
A study published this month by the Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Institute
(ZEPARI) shows that manufactured goods fell from 35 percent of merchandise exports in 1992 to 7
percent in 2024. This compares unfavourably with the 75 percent share of manufactured
merchandise exports in upper-middle-income countries. Over the same period, Zimbabwe’s share
of mineral exports rose from 20 percent in 2000 to 76 percent.
“Sustained investment in modern machinery, technology and productive capacity has been the
principal driver of productivity, profitability, employment, export performance and industrial
growth” over the past seven years, the AEDS report says.
The domestic market absorbs an estimated 75 to 85 percent of manufacturing output. Dr Mugano
argues that “before we export, we need to close the US$3 billion” in imports, citing its potential for
job creation.
Buy Zimbabwe, the buy-local campaign lobby group, identifies fertiliser, pharmaceuticals,
packaging, cooking oil and steel as priority sectors.
“From our standpoint at Buy Zimbabwe, this represents one of the most strategic opportunities to
strengthen local industry, create jobs and reduce reliance on imports,” said Buy Zimbabwe chief
executive Mr Munyaradzi Hwengwere.
Its estimates for the five sectors total roughly US$1,5 billion — about half the headline figure. The
figures do not fully reconcile, and ZimStat data measure import values rather than what local
producers could competitively replace.
Imports across five fertiliser categories reached US$399 million in the nine months to September
2026, up 80,6 percent, with nitrogen fertiliser alone accounting for US$257 million. Buy Zimbabwe
estimates the annual market at US$330 million to US$350 million, while AEDS puts it at US$337
million.
Sable Chemical has restarted ammonium nitrate production following a three-year shutdown, with
backing from the Mutapa Investment Fund. The company is targeting output equivalent to roughly
63 percent of the national annual requirement of about 380 000 tonnes. In 2019, the company said
it used ammonia imported from South Africa, exposing its production costs to foreign-currency
availability and price fluctuations. Rising global nitrogen prices may also partly explain the increase
in imports.
Buy Zimbabwe estimates that a blending plant could require US$5 million to US$10 million, while
nitrogen projects need about US$200 million.
“Many of these plants already exist but need finance and technology upgrades, meaning investors
don’t have to start from scratch,” Mr Hwengwere said.
Buy Zimbabwe attributes about 40 percent of the competitiveness gap to production costs, 30 percent to finance, 20 percent to outdated technology and 10 percent to weak enforcement of local-
preference rules. The 2025 National Competitiveness Baseline Survey it cites scored electricity
reliability at 28,6 out of 100 and start-up equity funding at 32,1.
The Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Energy and Power Development, cited by ZEPARI, put
effective power generation at 1 000 to 1 400 megawatts (MW) against demand of 1 700MW to 2
200MW in 2023, forcing manufacturers onto costly diesel generators.
“Power outages reduce manufacturing capacity utilisation, raise production costs through reliance
on diesel generators, and discourage investment in energy-intensive industries,” said ZEPARI.
The study also flags smuggling, which creates an uneven playing field between local and legally
imported products, and limited rail capacity, which raises logistics costs.
“Without affordable and reliable power, production costs remain uncompetitive,” Mr Hwengwere
said. The remedy, he added, is finance on better terms: “Long-term concessional finance would
allow manufacturers to modernise, expand capacity, and compete with imports on both price and
quality.”
Official statistics show that iron and steel imports totalled US$496 million in the nine months to
September, up 19,7 percent, against the US$300 million a year estimated by Buy Zimbabwe and
AEDS. According to Buy Zimbabwe, the country requires between US$15 million and US$25
million to recapitalise the steel fabrication sector. Coated flat steel, the largest import line alongside
welded pipes and sections, needs a separate assessment.
Buy Zimbabwe puts pharmaceutical imports above US$300 million a year and says CAPS and
Varichem could expand with good manufacturing practice upgrades. ZimStat data show US$149
million over the nine months, down 10,4 percent.
The organisation puts tissue and hygiene imports at about US$200 million a year. ZimStat records
show that US$19 million was spent on tissue imports alone, and US$153 million on a broader
basket including detergents and sanitary products. Cement imports rose 30,9 percent to 3,3 times
their 2021 level, while detergent imports rose 78 percent.
AEDS’s survey of 2 071 respondents across all 10 provinces found that 58 percent of firms expect
higher production by 2027 and only 5 percent anticipate job losses. Some 16 percent plan to invest
before 2027 and 24 percent are considering it.
The outlook stays positive, the report says, if the government improves the business environment,
value chains, infrastructure and financing.
Buy Zimbabwe says local-content rules and procurement preferences could secure demand, and its
Local Content Portal, still in development, would verify qualifying businesses and list tenders
requiring them.
