Online Reporter
Word From The Market
Tina Nleya
AS the Zimbabwe winter wheat cropping season roars into full swing, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Wheat is no longer just another winter crop in Zimbabwe.
It has quietly become one of the country’s most strategic cereals.
For many years, maize has naturally dominated conversations around food security.
However, wheat is steadily taking up a larger share of the national food basket as consumption patterns evolve and urban diets continue to change.
Bread, flour, pasta, noodles, biscuits and other wheat-based products have become part of everyday life for many Zimbabwean households. The market is responding accordingly.
What the market is now telling us is simple: Demand for wheat is growing, and Zimbabwe may need to produce more of it in the coming years.
Global wheat demand
According to the latest global outlook from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), world wheat consumption is projected to reach 823,2 million tonnes in the 2026/2027 season, slightly above projected production levels of 819,1 million tonnes.
Globally, wheat remains one of the most consumed cereals, alongside maize and rice, driven largely by population growth, urbanisation and changing consumer preferences.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) also projects continued growth in global cereal utilisation, estimating total cereal use at 2,946 billion tonnes in 2025/2026.
While global grain supplies remain relatively comfortable for now, wheat continues to experience strong and sustained demand worldwide.
However, global wheat markets are also becoming increasingly sensitive to production costs.
FAO has warned that rising energy and fertiliser costs are beginning to squeeze wheat production margins internationally. This has implications for future production levels and global pricing trends, especially for countries that rely heavily on imports.
The Zimbabwean
wheat story
Zimbabwe is very much part of this global wheat story.
Official food balance sheet data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) shows that wheat and meslin flour now contribute significantly to the national diet.
In 2024, wheat products provided approximately 199 kilocalories per person per day and accounted for 13 percent of available dietary protein in Zimbabwe.
Within the cereals basket, wheat products contributed around 19 percent of caloric intake, second only to maize meal.
This is a significant shift.
Traditionally, wheat products were largely viewed as urban commodities consumed mainly in the form of bread and confectioneries.
Today, wheat consumption cuts across both urban and rural communities.
Pasta, noodles, baked products and other processed foods are becoming more common in households due to changing lifestyles and consumer preferences.
The Agricultural Marketing Authority (AMA) market update report of May 18, 2026 also reflects this growing demand for wheat.
According to AMA market intelligence figures, total wheat consumption in Zimbabwe — calculated using domestically marketed wheat, together with imports — increased from 489 402 tonnes in the 2022/2023 marketing season to 605 183 tonnes in the 2024/2025 season. This represents growth of approximately 23.66 percent over the three-year period.
At the same time, wheat imports increased from 258 151 tonnes in the 2022/2023 season to 380 151 tonnes in the 2024/2025 season, representing a 47,26 percent increase.
Those figures alone tell an important story about where the market is moving.
The first driver behind this growth is population expansion. Zimbabwe’s population continues to grow steadily, naturally increasing aggregate food demand.
As more people move into urban centres, demand for convenient and processed foods also rises.
Secondly, dietary habits are changing.
Consumers are increasingly diversifying away from traditional staples alone and incorporating more wheat-based foods into their diets.
Bread remains one of the most consumed products nationally, while pasta and noodles continue gaining popularity, particularly among younger consumers and working urban households.
The expansion of fast-food outlets, bakeries, restaurants and food processing industries has also contributed significantly to industrial demand for wheat flour. This is why wheat demand is no longer seasonal in nature. It has become structural.
Once a commodity becomes central to everyday processed foods, demand becomes more stable and more consistent throughout the year.
Wheat is no longer only about bread production. It is now linked to an entire value chain of food processing industries and changing consumer lifestyles.
Wheat production has increasingly become attractive to many farmers, particularly under irrigation schemes and contractor arrangements.
The AMA market update report shows that contractors and self-financing farmers had set a wheat target of 125 000 hectares (ha) for the 2026 winter season.
By mid-May, 97 098ha had already been contracted, while 28 250ha had already been planted.
These figures demonstrate confidence in wheat production despite prevailing economic pressures.
However, challenges remain.
Wheat is a high-input crop that depends heavily on irrigation infrastructure, electricity, fuel availability, fertiliser and mechanisation. Rising fuel prices continue to place pressure on production costs.
This means increasing production alone may not be enough. The focus will also need to be on improving productivity, efficiency and sustainability within the wheat value chain.
The market opportunity is clearly there.
Demand continues to grow, imports remain significant and wheat products are becoming increasingly central to the national food basket. For farmers currently establishing winter wheat, this season represents more than just another production cycle.
It represents an opportunity to contribute to national food security while responding directly to a growing and evolving market.
Word from the market is, therefore, clear: Zimbabwe’s appetite for wheat is growing, and the need for increased local production is becoming more important with every passing season.
Tina Nleya is AMA’s marketing and public relations manager. She can be contacted on email: [email protected]. Word From The Market is a column produced by AMA to promote market-driven production.
