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Leroy Dzenga Features Writer
Zimbabwe’s winter is fast approaching, it is a time when temperatures are known to be at their lowest, but not alarming levels.
There are growing concerns that conditions brought by winter may increase the spread of Covid-19.
Common colds have been known to be more aggressive during winter and fears are this may be the case with some Covid-19 symptoms.
Being a new virus, there are no concrete scientific answers on the impact of cold weather on the spread, but authorities are not taking chances.
Government says it is in the process of formulating measures to ensure nothing is left to chance.
Director of Epidemiology and Disease Control in the Ministry of Health and Child Care, Dr Portia Manangazira, said they were crafting a precautionary strategy to minimise a possible surge.
“Coronavirus, being a member of the influenza viruses, thrives in low temperature conditions,” she said. “We are intensifying the influenza surveillance and will have the specific programme soon.”
A more specific plan is said to be in the pipeline as meetings are ongoing.
Dr Manangazira said the plan, which was being fine-tuned, will be communicated “soon” as consultations were ongoing.
Is there enough reason to be worried about cold weather at this point in light of Covid-19?
Epidemiologist Chido Dziva Chikwari said the question at the moment did not have a conclusive answer, but the country had to remain cautious.
“The possibility is there, but data on seasonality of Covid-19 is scarce due to the fact that we have only been trying to understand the virus for four months,” Chikwari said.
Although some countries with the same weather patterns as Zimbabwe are already making contingent plans to respond to cold weather, the global authority on Covid-19 is yet to issue an advisory to that effect.
“WHO says there is no reason to believe cold weather can kill the coronavirus and also highlights that even in the event of changing external temperatures normal human body temperature (where the virus thrives) remain the same,” said Chikwari.
“In hotter climates, the virus is being transmitted still. If we assume that the coronavirus behaves like the influenza family of viruses (where we have more cases when it is colder), the mechanisms of impact could be the same.
“When it is colder, people spend more time indoors and there is increased likelihood of close contact with each other. Therefore, there will be higher likelihood of passing the virus to each other and weakened immune systems due to lack of Vitamin D.”
Chikwari warned that the prediction may not be an indication of how the virus itself behaves.
Like Chikwari, global experts have been averse to extrapolating how Covid-19 could behave based on previous pandemics or recurring epidemics.
The Journal of Molecular and Genetic Medicine says the Spanish Flu peaked in summer despite other influenzas becoming aggressive during winter.
Former biochemist and senior science writer at BBC Richard Gray says it may not be enough to study other strains of the coronavirus which may not paint a complete picture.
“Extrapolating data about Covid-19’s seasonality based on endemic coronaviruses — meaning viruses which have been circulating in human populations for some time — is challenging,” Gray said in his writings.
Coronavirus is said to be part of what are described as enveloped viruses and they have a peculiar response to temperature changes.
“Coronavirus are a family of so-called enveloped viruses,” said Gray. “This means they are coated into an oily coat, known as lipid bilayer, studded with proteins that stick out like spikes of a crown, helping to give them their name — Corona is Latin for crown.”
The presence of the protein layer is what some scientists are banking their seasonality prediction on.
A 2019 research by Rory Henry MacGregor, Catriona Graham and Sandeep Ramalingam on the association between viral seasonality and meteorological factors showed that this oily protein coat makes viruses weak in high temperatures.
It also found that when the weather turns cold, they develop a rubber like coat which protects the virus when it is outside the body.
If the findings are correct, this means Covid-19 will be expected to stay longer on surfaces and there will be need for increased disinfection.
There may also be need to increase handwashing points in public places when winter comes, as the virus is likely to become stubborn with cold weather.
Zimbabwe, whose Covid-19 numbers stand at 14 confirmed cases and three deaths, awaits to hear what plans Government has on the winter season which has essentially arrived.
In the meantime, the country continues to observe a 21-day lockdown which runs until Sunday 19 April, and is subject to review.
Online Reporter