Online Reporter
Gibson Nyikadzino
Zimpapers Politics Hub
The Southern African Development Community this month is set to observe, for the first time this year, general elections held by one of its member states. Zambia, considered one of Africa’s model countries for peaceful transfers of power since the introduction of multi-party elections in 1990, is headed for general elections today, August 13.
The incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema’s attempt at a second shot in the State House faces a stern challenge from an opposition coalition rallying behind main challenger Brian Mundubile, who is a Member of Parliament and lawyer.
At least 8,7 million of Zambia’s over 21 million citizens are registered to vote in what observers say is shaping up to be one of the country’s most closely watched elections.
Candidates will be seeking endorsements from the voters comprising 4 665 431 and 4 120 869, female and male voters, respectively.
In the previous elections in August 2021, Zambia had seven million voters. The figures of registered voters open new dimensions that may be seen as growing frustrations that have attracted an unprecedented number of first time voters. As Zambians take to the polls today, below are some of the key things to look at, though there are many dimensions to an election.
Voting demographics
Voting is the primary language of a democracy. It is one of the main tools people, both young and old, use to communicate how they wish to be governed. The numbers of registered voters in Zambia’s elections are telling.
In the 2021 elections in Zambia, voters aged 18 to 34 constituted about 54 percent of all registered voters, with the 24 to 34 age group alone contributing at least 29,6 percent, making it the single largest voting alliance.
For the 2026 elections, there is a new trajectory that the numbers share. Voters aged 18 to 34 constitute 4 066 423 people or 46,3 percent, and voters above 35 years are now the majority at 53,7 percent. The worrying part of these statistics is that while the youth constitute the greater part of Zambia’s total population, 77 percent, their numbers in the voters roll do not reflect that, hence, they no longer have a decisive power to sway the election. They are no longer a greater pond to fish from as they have become at least, a ‘powerful’ minority. Zambians interested in democracy and understanding voting patterns need to explore why there was a drop among young voters.
Compared to the 2016 and 2021 elections, the 2026 elections in Zambia represent a lack of youth motivation or interest in politics and public policy issues, key factors for them to participate in elections. In 2016, out of a total 6 698 372 voters, young people constituted over 57 percent of voters. Another underlying point is whoever among the leading candidates is able to attract more women registered voters, will cross the line and get the much coveted prize!
Tricky Presidential Races
From 2011, Zambia’s presidential race has always been characterised as a two-horse race. Back then, the late Michael “King Cobra” Sata defeated incumbent Rupiah Banda on the Patriotic Front ticket. The same recurred in 2016 when then incumbent and now late Edgar Lungu (after succeeding Sata who had died in office in 2014) defeated his main Hakainde Hichilema. In the 2021 elections, Hichilema defeated Lungu after garnering 59 percent of the votes.
The characterisation of elections as a “two-horse race” in Zambia has brought new conceptualisations to the concept of multi-party democracy as there is no third way or an alternative to the at least two leading candidates.
In this year’s presidential race, out of 14 candidates, all eyes are on president Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) and main challenger Brian Mundubile of the Tonse Alliance (TA), a faction that emerged out of the former ruling Patriotic Front (PF) which lost power to UPND in 2021.
Mundubile’s running mate is Makebi Zulu, who also serves as spokesperson for the family of the late former president Lungu. Given Lubinda, the president of the other PF faction, is not contesting elections.
What is anticipated is him endorsing Mundubile and Zulu, and throw his weight behind the broad opposition coalition. Lubinda’s failures have been associated with factional struggles and failure to consolidate power over the remnants of a fractured outfit.
The key question to consider now is that in the face of what history recorded, will the electorate be forgiving and loving to give President Hichilema another term of office? Did he meet their expectations during his first term?
For Zambia, presidential race tradition gives points and leverage to the opposition for prospects of coming to power, than the ruling parties retaining their dominance.
It means the voters are either alive to the political developments or have no definitive loyalty to their party institutions, and can easily switch allegiance.
In politics, opposition divisions and power struggles always benefit the incumbent.
While the contest remains sharp between President Hichilema and challenger Mundubile, the political prowess of either candidate will be proven by official results.
Path to Victory
Under President Hichilema, Zambia embarked on constitutional reforms that were widely received, but also equally opposed by critics. That is the nature of democracy, so initiatives are welcomed, while others are abhorred. Parts of the constitutional amendments were adopted last December to reshape or reforms the country’s electoral architecture.
For example, the National Assembly seats were increased to 280 from 167. Of the 280 National Assembly members, 226 will be elected in constituencies while 40 members will be elected through a proportional election based on parties’ national-level vote shares in the presidential race. Twenty seats are reserved for women, 15 reserved for youth and five seats reserved for persons with disabilities.
President Hichilema has strong support in the Southern, Western and North-Western provinces, all that have a total 2 349 873 registered voters, about 27 percent of total voters.
Against this background, President Hichilema has a rough road to travel though it has a commendable direction.
However, the conditions for the Tonse alliance’s road to victory are dangerously mountainous as they failed to submit nominations for candidates in many constituencies and municipal wards.
Overall, President Hichilema appears to have more plausible pathways to securing victory than the opposition.
