Zimbabwe poised for 1.8 percent population growth

Michelle Moyo

ZIMBABWE’S population, which is about 16 million, is projected to grow to 21,2 million by 2042, representing an average annual population growth rate of 1,8 percent driven by steadily rising life expectancy, the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) has said.

The country can therefore expect significant changes in its demographic landscape over the next two decades, including shifts in age distribution, urbanisation and migration patterns as the population expands.

This growth is expected to have implications on the country’s economy, infrastructure and resource allocation, making it essential to plan and prepare for the needs of a growing population.

Zimstat acting director-general Mr Aluwisio Mukavhi said the 2022 Population and Housing Census seeks to provide policymakers, planners, decision-makers and development partners with reliable data on population dynamics in the two decades 2022-2042.

“Zimbabwe’s population is projected to grow from 15,2 million in 2022 to 21,2 million in 2042 in the medium scenario. This gives a higher average annual population growth rate of 1, 8 percent.

This is due to steadily rising life expectancy at birth, expanding educational levels, urbanisation and improved public health systems,” he said.

Mr Mukavhi said Zimbabwe’s population has doubled in four decades from 7,5 million in 1982 to 16,2 million in 2022, highlighting significant demographic changes. Specifically, fertility has steadily declined since 1982 while mortality in childhood has remained relatively stable for most of the period.

“Under-five mortality has been declining in Zimbabwe during the past four decades while life expectancy at birth has steadily been increasing since 1982 until about 1987 when it reached a peak of 61 years after which it gradually declined to a low of 43 years in 2002 before steadily increasing after that to a peak of 64 years in 2022,” said Mr Mukavhi.

He said the benchmark data for the projections is the 2022 Population and Housing Census which provides the foundation for estimating the components of population change, including fertility, mortality, and migration.

These components, Mr Mukavhi said, are crucial for understanding population growth and development trends.

“The projections assume that Zimbabwe’s total fertility rate will decrease from 3,7 children per woman in 2022 to 3,2 in 2042. This is partly a result of an increase in contraceptive prevalence rate,” he said.

Mr Mukavhi however said population projections are computed without absolute certainty hence it is essential to adopt different scenarios – high, principal and low representing respective population component assumptions.

“This approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of potential population growth trajectories and their implications for future planning and development. Key determinants of population change will continue to be mortality and fertility levels with international migration playing a more significant role,” he said.