adminheads of state and governments recognised the critical role of tourism as not only a driver of growth and development, but as a sector to spur global economic recovery.
Of course, much work remains to be done in order to position our sector to realise its full potential in terms of job creation, social inclusion, services exports and foreign exchange earnings, fostering a better understanding between peoples and cultures, and green transformation.
The year 2012, however, still remains a particularly challenging one: The World Travel and Tourism Council expects global travel and tourism gross domestic product to grow at 2,8 percent this year, which is down from 3 percent in 2011. In terms of volume, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation tells us that global tourist arrival growth has been at a strong 5,4 percent during the first four months of 2012. However, some flattening out is on the horizon, and, by year-end, we expect arrivals growth worldwide to have averaged out in the 3–4 percent bandwidth.
Traditional markets are not yet out of the doldrums, and growth in outbound travel remains flat. The American economic recovery is fragile and the on-going crisis in Europe could still draw the continent and the rest of the world into a prolonged recession. Fortunately, however, we are witnessing multi-speed growth.
The emerging economies continue to drive the recovery in international tourist flows. While Europe stagnates, we, in the emerging-market economies, are boosting global tourism flows and outbound spend.
By 2015, the emerging economies are expected to account for 40 percent of all global departures.
The rise of the Chinese outbound market as well as those in other emerging economies also tracks the global geo-political and economic rebalancing that has been under way over the past decade.
This is very clearly demonstrated by what we have witnessed while the world economy doubled in the last decade, where a third of the global economic growth came from the Brics countries. In the next decade, emerging-market economies are, for the first time in modern history, set to contribute more to global economic growth than the developed ones. This global rebalancing, together with the spread of low-cost airlines, air space liberalisation, the removal of visa barriers and the growing popularity of online bookings, underscores that the extensive Brics co-operation and partnership on travel and tourism among not only businesses but also governments offers boundless opportunities.
Being witness to the evolution of the emerging economies, we cannot but celebrate the unique potential of our sector to grow exponentially from low baselines over short periods. This sector is a haven for small enterprises, and, as a labour-intensive sector with a supply chain that cascades deep into national economies and communities, it is an important vehicle for social inclusion. It provides fast uptake for newly skilled workers, especially women and young people, in urban and rural areas alike. Each job in the tourism sector creates just under two jobs in the broader economy.
I come from an emerging economy where we have experienced first-hand the amazing potential of this sector. In 1993, before our first democratic elections, we had just over 3,3 million international arrivals in South Africa. Today, we have 12 million international arrivals, of whom 8,3 million are tourists. As it stands, tourism contributes 9 percent to our GDP (direct and indirect), and supports one in every 12 jobs in our country. And we believe the best is yet to come: Government and industry are united in their commitment to grow our international arrivals to 15 million by 2020.
Writer is Minister of Tourism, Republic of South Africa. — African Executive.
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