admin
There has been a slight increase in Covid-19 infections in Africa over the past month, according to the latest information from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC).
The number of new daily confirmed cases has started rising after declining since mid-July, although in some countries cases are still on a downward trend.
Over the four weeks up to October 25th, there was a 6% average increase in new cases, according to the Africa CDC. This was across most regions except in west and central Africa – in Nigeria, there was a decline in new cases.
Egypt, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa and Kenya recorded increases over this period, but in Ethiopia, there was a marginal decrease. And other countries which have experienced the decreases in new cases include Sierra Leone, the Gambia, Burkina Faso, eSwatini and Côte d’Ivoire.
The head of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control says the low numbers recently could be attributed to a drop in testing caused by the curfew imposed in some states following anti-police brutality protests.
By contrast, Kenya has been experiencing a steep increase in new cases. Data from Africa CDC shows over the past month, cases increased by 45% on average.
The World Health Organisation (WHO)’s Matshidiso Moeti says of the increase in Kenya: “We expect that [increase] in some countries as the measures are eased.
The most important [thing] is to contain them without the situation getting out of control,” she adds. Dr Moeti also feels people could be tiring of measures such as wearing masks, social distancing and hand hygiene.
As of late October, new deaths had been declining on the continent for two weeks after being on an upward trend.
The Africa CDC said on October 25 there was a 15% decrease in deaths the previous week compared to the week before.
Most Affected
South Africa has the highest recorded number of total cases and reported deaths in Africa so far. Daily reported numbers have been stable after falling for about three months, although there have been some spikes in some provinces.
Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has warned that the country could be experiencing another rise in positive cases in some provinces.
The Western Cape province – where Cape Town is located – recorded a 42% increase in cases during the seven days ending October 21, which some reports linked to a single event at a bar or club.
However, the reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.
The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa – more than 60% under the age of 25.
Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa.
Experts also say expertise in epidemic control from tackling other outbreaks, cross-immunity from other coronaviruses, low travel and outdoor living could also be contributing to Africa coping better.
In terms of what proportion of people who get Covid-19 go on to die, there were 12 African countries with rates comparable with or higher than the global average rate of 2.9% on October 15.
Testing
The WHO says the testing level in Africa is still very low compared to other regions.
“Most African countries are focused on testing travellers, patients or contacts, and we estimate that a significant number of cases are still missed.”
Ten countries account for about 75% of the total tests conducted – South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Ghana.
There are wide variations in testing rates, with South Africa doing the most and Nigeria doing relatively few per capita, according to Our World in Data, a UK-based project which collates Covid-19 information.
About half of the countries on the continent have a ratio lower than the benchmark of doing at least 10 tests for every positive case recommended by the Africa CDC.
And in some countries, there’s insufficient data available on testing to know how much is being done.
Paths out of the Pandemic
There is little consensus in Africa on what the next steps should be. There are credible arguments for a wide range of policy options.
The public health corridor initiative, launched with a flourish on October 5, comes with a new app (www.africacdc.org/trusted-travel <http://www.africacdc.org/trusted-travel>) that has so far been adopted by 36 countries.
It details the often confusing requirements for travel to different countries, lists testing centres, and allows for test results from these approved centres to securely auto-load onto a traveller’s app, thus becoming an individualised ‘Covid-19 digital passport’.
Standardising the format and authenticity of test results was an urgent requirement.
Currently 29 countries in Africa insist that passengers arrive with a negative PCR Covid-19 test, taken within 72 hours of departure. Africa CDC continues to push for more harmonisation, and affordability.
‘Vaccine wars’ remain a problem. At his press conference in the week-ending October 3, Africa CDC director John Nkengasong was frank about the failure of the international COVAX initiative, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, to attain the numbers of vaccines Africa will need to produce herd immunity.
While praising the programme for “speaking to international solidarity”, he said that the 220m doses of vaccine falls well short of what is needed.
“We’ve always said”, he asserted, “that to build herd immunity, we are going to need to achieve somewhere between 40% and 60% of population coverage.
This COVAX allocation might only be 10% if we find everyone needs two shots”. He says that they have no alternative but to work to find alternative additional supplies and commended Afreximbank for being willing to provide resources.
Finding supplies might be more difficult than finding the money to buy them.
There are other obstacles with signs that the anti-vaxxers have been making headway on social media across the continent.
According to the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Portal, many Africans say that they won’t accept a vaccination. In fact, vaccination scepticism in Africa is the worst of all the WHO’s six regions, with an average of 30% saying they won’t have a jab.
An astonishing 67% of Cameroonians surveyed said they would refuse to receive a Covid-19 vaccination. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana also registered over 50% refusals, with Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania all returning results around the 40% bracket.
It is a serious challenge, encouraged through disinformation campaigns put out on social media. Many organisations are now working to counter the rumour merchants but after the billions of dollars invested in research, the vaccine roll-out could be jeopardised by such rumours now termed an infodemic campaign.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/
Online Reporter