All eyes on Prof Mthuli’s Mid-Term Budget Review

Oliver Kazunga

Senior Reporter

ALL is set for the 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review by Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube on Thursday amid expectations from business and consumers for measures to sustain economic growth, accelerate infrastructure development and support productive sectors.

The statement is expected to provide an assessment of the economy’s performance during the first half of the year while outlining policy adjustments aimed at maintaining momentum towards the country’s Vision 2030 development agenda.

Business leaders, economists, and players in the construction sector are expected to closely scrutinise the review for possible revisions to economic growth projections, fiscal measures to stimulate investment, tax policy adjustments and increased funding for strategic infrastructure projects.

The business community is also keen to hear Treasury’s assessment of revenue performance, inflation trends, exchange rate stability and progress in implementing commitments announced in the 2026 National Budget.

The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) president Ms Josephine Takundwa said the chamber has undertaken a comprehensive review of the tax system and has developed detailed recommendations to support efficiency, equity, and growth-oriented fiscal policy.

“Regarding the tobacco excise duty framework and its implications for investment, revenue mobilisation, industrial sustainability, and regulatory effectiveness, the chamber’s position is guided by three principles: maximisation of sustainable fiscal revenues, preservation of productive industries and formal employment, and the reduction of illicit trade and regulatory leakages,” she said.

“The tobacco industry remains an important contributor to Zimbabwe’s economy through agriculture, manufacturing, exports, employment creation, and tax revenues.

“Any changes to the excise framework should, therefore, be evaluated not only on their immediate revenue implications but also on their impact on compliance, investment, and the long-term viability of the value chain.”

Ms Takundwa said ZNCC membership recognises the Government’s efforts to stabilise the monetary environment, including the introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG).

“However, from a tax policy design perspective, the current mixed excise system remains more vulnerable to currency movements due to its ad valorem component,” she said.

“Transitioning to a specific excise duty regime would materially improve stability and predictability. “It would also reduce administrative complexity for the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA), as ad valorem taxation requires constant monitoring and verification of ex-factory prices.

“Many jurisdictions increasingly rely on specific excise structures because they are easier to administer and less vulnerable to manipulation. The existing dual excise structure exposes the tax system to manipulation. The ad valorem component is inherently vulnerable to practices such as under-declaration of ex-factory prices by scrupulous manufacturers and importers, which directly erodes excise collections.

“In principle, products within the same category should converge around comparable ex-factory prices. By contrast, a specific excise duty delivers more stable, transparent, and predictable revenues, shielding collections from price manipulation and inflationary pressures.”

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