Assessing social effects of lockdown

Misheck Ugaro

The authorities are commended for adopting a proactive response to the deadly Covid-19 pandemic by implementing the 21-day lockdown.

We had previously called for a regimented approach towards combating this invisible new enemy that has forced a new frontier for the nation.

As we draw towards the close of the lockdown period, it is necessary to review the response and the likely social impact of the action going forward and to suggest further measures.

Our economic prognosis for Quarter Two of the year going into April 2020 was carried in the publication of week 10-16 April of this paper wherein it was a projected that all fundamentals would be on an adverse trend.

It is generally accepted that the pandemic is yet to fully hit countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Zimbabwe in particular.

The close of this first lockdown period should not be viewed as an end in itself but rather as the beginning of a continuously rolling and proactive strategic approach of fighting this disease.

Various quarters have criticised the authorities for hastily adopting the lockdown before fully analysing and localising the modalities to match conditions such that inadequate preparations were not made to enable people to fully comply with the lock down orders. Some claim they needed ample time to stock up.

It is argued that this led to a few people defying the orders as they ran out of provisions and had to go out looking for food and other basic needs including fetching of water from shared boreholes.

It is alleged that these needs made it impossible for the total observation of the social distance of at least one meter as many people queued for buying food provisions at grocery stores.

None the less the authorities could not be faulted for such action because the disease knows no warning period and there was no time to waste lest the disease penetration would have caused catastrophic damage before any tangible actions had been adopted.

Some had recommended immediate action and are pleased with the swift response from the authorities.

The reported numbers for the country are still comparatively low and although the loss of any single life is regrettable, the authorities ought to be commended for the efforts to date.

As a result, as the pandemic spreads around the globe, the following statistics have been reported since the commencement of testing to date as of Tuesday 14 April 2020. It is worth noting that these numbers are moving on an hourly basis and quickly change as more tests and reports are filed.

Botswana        4 infections    1 death

Zimbabwe       18 infections  3 deaths

Zambia            39 infections  1 death

Republic of

South Africa   2 272 infections                       27 deaths

China               83 741 infections                     3 351 deaths

United States  605 193 infections                   25 757                                        deaths

Global              1 900 000 infections                                                                    119 000 deaths

While the above figures seem to indicate an effective initial control of the rate of infections by the country, critiques have argued that the numbers are still low and arguably understated for two reasons:

One being that the winter season is yet to kick in and is likely to see an upsurge in infection rate and secondly that the country’s coverage of testing is not yet wide enough such that many other cases could still be unreported. That as it may, authorities must be applauded for work achieved so far including the upgrading work on all the designated isolation centres.

The ending of the lock down period should, however, be treated with serious caution as it potentially pauses a big risk for a spike in new infections. It is therefore imperative that authorities consider the next phase of aggressively facing the pandemic off.

Given the economic status of the country, a continued lock down will certainly be unsustainable as the country does not have adequate resources to meet all people needs. Industry through the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) has already issued a statement that members are not able to sustain any continued lockdown beyond a month.

The country has limited resources and therefore authorities are urged to consider shifting the nature of isolation and adapt the process to meet local conditions. The greatest risk so far judging from the trend of infection sources is that most are acquired from travel related exposures.

Going forward therefore, the authorities are urged to consider the following measures:

1. Adopt a country-level isolation measure that minimises cross border interactions of citizens.
2. Only allow commercial transport carrying essential commodities to cross the borders.
3. Zimbabwe’s economy is estimated to be 60 percent informal so internally allow the informal sector to operate under strict supervision of movements.
4. Allow intercity movement but still restrict inter city/province movements.
5. Allow schools to open and no movements out of schools until the end of the term in the case of boarding schools.
6. Allow industry to open under carefully coordinated working plans and zoned transport schedules. All companies to test all employees reporting for duty each day at entrance and at end of day knock off times as an early detection, monitoring and initial tracking mechanism.

In addition to the above, the Government still needs to give a careful consideration for one potential vulnerable section of the society that requires special attention. These are the schoolchildren whose parents have not been able to carry out their normal trading businesses for raising school fees.

Other sectors such as industry, labour and professions usually have enough representation and voice. Many parents sustain their living through the informal sector businesses that include cross border trading, which has been curtailed. Any savings people might have had have been channelled to food requirements during the lockdown period.

The period will result in many parents finding it difficult to pay for tuition for the forthcoming school term.

Further, the payment of exam fees will be jeopardised and this has serious repercussions for the affected children.

It is, therefore, recommended that the authorities consider among other measures, a targeted approach towards school-going children as follows:

1. Government waives/settles all tuition for primary school children for the second term of 2020. This is estimated to be about ZW$65 million for primary school-going children. The Government may draw on part proceeds of the 2 percent IMT.
2. Further for boarding schools, the Government could coordinate direct deliveries of subsidised roller meal from GMAZ and other foodstuffs such as cooking oil, sugar and salt.
3. Encourage schools to allow parents to stagger tuition fee payments for secondary schools children.

The full force of the pandemic is yet to be experienced and while the authorities have largely acted well to pre-empt its potentially devastating impact, it is essential to regard that action as only the initial step which requires gearing up with pragmatic reinforcement strategies going forward until the disease subsides the world over.

Misheck Ugaro (263) 777052004/ 712808140 [email protected]  Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/misheckugaro Twitter: @twitcagan.com. Misheck is a former expatriate banker based in several SADC countries and currently works as a Corporate Advisory Services Consultant. He is the founder of Rucabel Investments (Private) Limited, an investment company based in Zimbabwe. He is a member and past vice president of the Zimbabwe Economics Society.