Be careful what you wish for… Putin’s survival is good for global politics, balance of power

THE recent events in Russia, specifically the Friday to Saturday insurrection led by Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and the subsequent negotiations with President Vladimir Putin, threatened the country’s stability.

The outcome of this situation has broader implications for global politics and the delicate balance of power. While the events may seem unsettling, it is crucial to recognise the importance of Putin’s survival and the impact it has on both Russia and the international stage.

Putin’s rule has provided a sense of stability and order within Russia. His leadership has navigated the nation through various challenges, including economic hardships and geopolitical tensions. Putin’s survival ensures the continuity of a strong central authority, preventing potential power vacuums that could lead to internal strife and chaos. The preservation of stability within Russia is of paramount importance, as any significant disruption could have far-reaching consequences for global security.

Putin’s presence on the global stage has been instrumental in maintaining a delicate balance of power. Russia’s geopolitical influence is substantial, and Putin’s leadership has allowed the country to assert itself as a major player in international affairs. A sudden and unexpected change in leadership could disrupt this equilibrium and create uncertainty regarding Russia’s future actions. The failure of the insurrection ensures a level of predictability and consistency, which is essential for managing international relations and preventing potential conflicts.

The recent events involving Prigozhin’s insurrection and the alleged conflict within Russian defence and security services have raised concerns about the integrity of some in the Russian military. The ability of the military to maintain its chain of command, planning, and logistics is crucial for the effective execution of operations, including those in Ukraine. Putin’s survival and his ability to restore order and discipline within the military are paramount to prevent further fragmentation and potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited by external forces.

Without a doubt, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a matter of international concern. Any upheaval or internal turmoil within Russia could impact the situation in Ukraine and exacerbate the already fragile state of affairs. A change in leadership or a power struggle in Russia may embolden certain factions within the country to adopt more aggressive policies, further fueling tensions in the region. Putin’s survival offers the best chance for maintaining stability in Ukraine and finding a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

Preventing a power vacuum and potential instability in Russia can only happen if Putin stays in power. The sudden departure or downfall of a leader with significant control over the country’s political and security apparatus can create a void that could be exploited by various factions vying for power. This power struggle could lead to internal conflicts, endangering the stability of the nation and causing ripple effects in global politics. Putin’s continued presence ensures a smoother transition of power, if and when it eventually occurs, reducing the risk of chaos and preserving stability both domestically and internationally.

Russia plays a critical role in global energy markets as one of the largest exporters of oil and natural gas. Any major political upheaval or uncertainty in the country could disrupt the energy supply chain and have a significant impact on global energy prices. Putin’s continued stay in power provides reassurance to energy markets, as his consistent policies and control over the energy sector minimise the potential for disruptions. This stability is essential for ensuring the smooth functioning of the global economy and avoiding unnecessary volatility in energy markets.

Lest we forget, Russia does not exist in a vacuum. Should Putin be toppled, the repercussions will be felt beyond the borders of Russia. Why is that so? This is because Putin’s continued rule is crucial for maintaining Russia’s international commitments and agreements. As a key player in various international organisations and initiatives, including the United Nations Security Council, G20, and arms control treaties, Russia’s consistent leadership ensures the country’s adherence to its obligations. Any abrupt change in leadership could lead to uncertainties about Russia’s stance on critical issues, potentially undermining diplomatic efforts and collaborative initiatives aimed at addressing global challenges.

Indeed, Russia’s influence extends beyond its borders, particularly in regions like Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Putin’s presence is important for upholding regional stability by preventing potential power struggles or aggressive policy shifts that could lead to conflicts or geopolitical tensions. Russia’s engagement in regional security issues, such as the conflict in Ukraine or its role in the Syrian crisis, requires a stable leadership capable of pursuing a coherent and consistent approach. Putin’s continued rule contributes to regional stability and reduces the risk of destabilising actions that could have far-reaching consequences.

Furthermore, Putin’s survival in power has had implications for Russia’s relations with other countries, including Zimbabwe. In the 21st century, Zimbabwe has experienced a revival and intensification of relations with Russia and other favourable states in the East. This resurgence can be traced back to the historical ties and common political ideology shared between the two nations. During the era of Zimbabwe’s liberation struggle, the Soviet Union provided support to Zimbabwean freedom fighters, offering training, material, and logistical assistance.

After Zimbabwe gained its independence, diplomatic relations with Russia were established. Although these ties were interrupted following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, Russia maintained its connection with Zimbabwe. However, it wasn’t until the beginning of the 21st century that relations between the two countries experienced a renewed vigor. The invasion of Iraq by the US-led coalition in 2003, coupled with the international pressure on Zimbabwe following the 2002 elections, played a significant role in reawakening Russia’s interest in Zimbabwe. Trade agreements, government actions, diplomatic engagements, and media reports have all showcased the revival of relations between the two nations.

Recently, Zimbabwe took delivery of helicopters purchased from the Russian Federation. President Mnangagwa and the chief executive of the Russian State Corporation (Rostec) were present at the handover ceremony. These helicopters are intended for use in various capacities, including policing, wildlife protection, and disaster management. President Mnangagwa highlighted that Zimbabwe, being under sanctions, faces constraints in acquiring necessary tools to mitigate the impact of cyclones and other disasters. The new equipment is expected to enhance Zimbabwe’s response capacity and enable the country to provide assistance to neighbouring nations like Malawi and Mozambique, which are often affected by natural disasters.

This growing collaboration between Russia and Zimbabwe underscores the significance of Putin’s continued rule for global politics and the balance of power. It highlights how Putin’s continued rule allows for the continuity of existing international relationships, particularly with countries that share historical ties and ideological affinities. The strengthened ties between Russia and Zimbabwe, evident in trade agreements and mutual support, contribute to the diversification of global alliances and promote a more balanced distribution of power.

In a nutshell, while the enemies of Putin want him gone today if not tomorrow, they have to be careful what they wish for because his incumbency in the face of recent challenges is significant for global politics and the delicate balance of power. It ensures stability within Russia, maintains the equilibrium of international relations, preserves the integrity of the Russian military, and mitigates the risk of internal and regional instability. Recognising the importance of Putin’s continued rule allows for a more nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics at play and underscores the necessity of supporting a peaceful transition of power, when the time comes, to uphold stability and promote global security. @plainstan