Online Reporter
THE race for Champions League qualification is heading for an epic conclusion on the final day of the season today.
Premier League winners Liverpool and second-placed Arsenal have already guaranteed Champions League football.
But after Sunday’s results, just ONE POINT separates fourth-placed Newcastle United from Nottingham Forest in seventh.
Even Manchester City are not yet certain of finishing in the top five, despite beating Bournemouth in midweek.
It’s all set up for a blockbuster final day, with Forest hosting Chelsea (live on Sky Sports), Newcastle playing Everton, Aston Villa heading to Old Trafford to face Manchester United, and Guardiola’s side away at Fulham.
Ahead of City’s game against Bournemouth, Jamie Carragher and Gary Neville assessed the race for the Champions League and picked who they think will finish in the top five.
How It Stands
Manchester City
Points: 68
Goal difference: +26
Remaining fixture: Fulham vs Man City
City are nearly there after beating Bournemouth on Tuesday night.
That said, a defeat at Fulham on the final day would leave them vulnerable: if City lose at Craven Cottage and Newcastle, Villa and Chelsea all win, then Pep Guardiola’s side would slump from third to sixth. (Forest would go level on points with City in the event of a Fulham win and a Forest victory over Chelsea, but the goal difference gap is too large for Forest to finish above City.)
So, a point is still required.
Even a point wouldn’t mathematically guarantee a top-five berth, but given Villa’s significant goal difference deficit, it’s all but impossible to see how a point wouldn’t be enough.
City’s goal difference advantage over Chelsea and Newcastle is less substantial but still healthy enough to suggest that a draw ought to be sufficient to claim third.
Second place is still mathematically possible for City, but highly unrealistic: a point for Arsenal at Southampton will secure the runners-up spot. Even if the Gunners suffer a shock defeat, City would need to make up around half-a-dozen goals if both clubs finish on 71 points.
Newcastle United
Points: 66
Goal difference: +22
Remaining fixture: Newcastle vs Everton
With every Champions League related result going against them this weekend, Eddie Howe’s side now face a huge assignment against Everton on the final day, possibly without Alexander Isak up front.
A draw would only be enough (courtesy of goal difference) if Aston Villa fail to win and Forest vs Chelsea doesn’t end in a draw.
Bottom line: with four teams within a point, Newcastle can only be confident of Champions League qualification with a win.
Chelsea
Points: 66
Goal difference: +20
Remaining fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Because their goal difference is significantly better than Villa’s, Chelsea will qualify for the Champions League if they win at Forest, finishing above both Villa and Forest.
A draw would only be sufficient if Newcastle lose to Everton or Villa fail to win at Manchester United.
Defeat would be terminal for their top-five hopes, as a Forest win would automatically drop Chelsea to sixth or lower.
Aston Villa
Points: 66
Goal difference: +9
Remaining fixture: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Mathematically, a draw at Old Trafford could be enough for Villa to finish fifth, but only if Newcastle lose and Forest vs Chelsea ends in a draw.
However, much like Chelsea, the reality is that Villa must win on the final day to give themselves the best chance of securing a top-five finish.
And even then, with Villa’s modest goal difference (+9), a win won’t be enough if Newcastle and Chelsea both win and City secure at least a point at Fulham.
Nottingham Forest
Points: 65
Goal difference: +13
Remaining fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea (live on Sky Sports)
There’s hope for Forest, but to leapfrog two teams and reach the top five, the minimum requirement is a win over Chelsea on the final day.
Yes, a draw could still leave them on 66 points, but in that scenario, they are almost certain to finish sixth behind Newcastle on goal difference, with Chelsea on 67.
So only a win will do. And even then, with 68 points, Forest would need either Villa to drop points at Manchester United or Newcastle to fail to beat Everton.
