adminTichaona Zindoga Features Correspondent
Due to the global rise in mean temperatures, the occurrence of severe events like droughts and floods will be frequent while insect borne diseases like malaria will be increasing.
Zimbabwe’s now all too frequent droughts which are getting severer by occasion, are also being attributed to climate change.
Due to climate change, some coastal areas and small islands risk being completely flooded out of existence.
Yet the tale gets even more harrowing when one talks of Africa.
It was one Dr Lindsey Gillson who decided to portray the worst that could happen to the continent by invoking the 19th century work of an Austrian explorer who wrote about the Kenyan Maasai people’s “Emutai” which means “wiping out’’.
Gillson quoted in a 2006 African Journal of Science explorer Dr Oscar Baumann’s experiences in Maasailand: “There were women wasted to skeletons from whose eyes the madness of starvation glared . . . warriors scarcely able to crawl on all fours and apathetic, languishing elders. Swarms of vultures followed them from high, awaiting their certain victims.”
Dr Gillson believes this may yet visit Africa.
Other sober analyses still point to some kind or another of Emutai.
It is said agricultural losses are predicted to result in the loss of between 2 and 7 percent of GDP and by 2050, average maize, rice and wheat yields will decline by up to 5 percent, 14 percent, 22 percent respectively.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their dependence on rain-fed agriculture, high levels of poverty, low levels of human and physical capital, and poor infrastructure.
“The negative effects of climate change on crop production are especially pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa,’’ says IFPRI, “as the agriculture sector accounts for a large share of GDP, export earnings, and employment in most African countries.”
“Furthermore, the vast majority of the poor reside in rural areas and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.’’
It states that the crop model indicates that in 2050 in sub-Saharan Africa, average rice, wheat, and maize yields will decline by up to 14 percent, 22 percent and 5 percent, respectively, as a result of climate change.
Also, irrigation water supply reliability, the ratio of water consumption to requirements, is expected to worsen in Sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change.
“Without climate change,’’ explains IFPRI, “calorie availability is expected to increase in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2050.”
With climate change, however, food availability in the region will average 500 calories less per person in 2050, a 21 percent decline. (Meaning those pictures of malnourished African children will still obtain; there will be 52 million malnourished children in 2050, according to the IFPRI.) Perhaps this is to be expected, sadly.
However, can there be opportunities in this sad tale? The African Climate Policy Centre organised the three-day conference in Ethiopia held under the theme “Africa on the rise: Can the opportunities from climate change spring the continent to transformative development?”
It was expected to assess how Africa is coping with impacts of climate change and seek ways of strengthening Africa’s ability to seize opportunities from climate change to better prepare the continent for transformative development.
UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ECA Carlos Lopes believes “climate change offers Africa an array of incredible investment opportunities that can reap dividends.’’ UN chief Ban Ki-moon has some ideas.
Speaking at the annual meeting of the International Development Finance Club on October 13 in Washington, DC, he said: “With enlightened action, we can create jobs, improve public health and protect the environment.”
This is by way of, for example, when large amounts of capital are needed to develop low-carbon infrastructure, and green enterprises need investments to close the gap between low-emissions and fossil-fuel based projects. According to an Environment Leader report on October 22, Global investment in climate change plateaued at US$359 billion in 2012, slightly less than the US$364 spent the previous year, though the International Energy Agency projects that an additional investment of US$5 trillion is required by 2020 for clean energy alone, to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius.
Creating opportunities
Closer home, Dr Richard Munang, Africa Regional Climate Change Head Co-ordinator at the UN Environment Programme, in an op-ed piece on Al Jazeera last month gives some insights into how Africa can use local resources and opportunities.
He writes: “Many of the ecosystem-based practices and technologies we need are already in use in the continent and elsewhere. For example, in Uganda, a project promoting agro-forestry and conservation agriculture resulted in more fertile soils and increased yields.
This in turn reduced time and cost in preparing land for farming, leaving more time available for diversification, for instance, into livestock rearing.
“The project also resulted in lower use of agrochemicals and improved biodiversity. It is estimated that 75 000 people benefited from the project.
“Around 31 000 tree seedlings have been planted to harness the ecosystem and boost household investment in the short and medium term.’’
The ability by farmers to generate surplus incomes from their agricultural practices, reasons the expert, dramatically contributes to the food security while improving efficiency and encouraging better agro-forestry practices.
There are similar opportunities in Zimbabwe.
The UNDP, for example has identified cassava production, captive breeding of crocodiles, aquaculture, optimising crop mix and soil moisture management, natural resources management, optimising livestock production and inter-basin water transfer as opportunities carried out in the adaptation strategy in combating climate change.
More needs to be done
At the beginning of October, Higher and Tertiary Education and Science and Development Minister Olivia Muchena tasked stakeholders to look for opportunities that came with climate change.
“When you are debating about the climate change nexus, you need to look for opportunities coming out of the climate change catastrophe,” she said.
“As researchers you need to explore how we can create employment and improve livelihoods out of the climate change phenomenon. Let it not be just about knowledge generation but about employment creation as well.”
Feedback: [email protected]
Online Reporter