COMMENT: Despite January decline, gold sector poised for new records

Local gold output declined to 3,04 tonnes last month from 3,17 tonnes produced in January last year.

As they have always done, artisanal and small-scale miners dominated after they sold 2,24 tonnes of the yellow metal in the month under review, marginally down from 2,27 tonnes produced in January 2025.  

We reported yesterday that large-scale miners produced 808,4kg last month, down from 903,2kg in the prior-year period.

The January output was also significantly lower than the 4,9 tonnes delivered in December last year.

National gold output has been rallying in recent years. In 2021, 29,6 tonnes were produced, the output surging to 35,3 tonnes in 2022 before it dropped to 30,1 tonnes in the following year.  Production shot up to 36,5 tonnes in 2024, which was a record.  That record was exceeded last year when miners delivered 46,7 tonnes.

We are encouraged by the continuing increase in the production of the country’s number one export. Therefore, we are optimistic that the industry will beat the 2025 record to sit at 50 tonnes by December.

While concern has been raised over the decline in the January output compared to the amount, which was produced in the same month last year, and the December delivery, we remain unfazed.

Gold production in the country always moderates in January; rather, in the first quarter of every year, our wettest period.  Ground conditions get trickier this time due to heavy rains. There is a risk of shaft flooding and underground workings caving in.

These conditions deter artisanal and small-scale miners who deliver more than 70 percent of all gold sold to Fidelity Gold Refinery. They are less resourced than larger mines, thus cannot fortify their tunnels and shafts or dewater them.

So, they play it safe during the wet season, hence the traditional decline in output in the first three months of every year.

But as soon as the skies clear up and underground infrastructure gets drier, the artisanal and small-scale sector springs back into action, producing so much as to offset the first quarter slump.

We must also emphasise that the fundamentals that drove output to last year’s record remain in  place.

The gold price on global markets remains high at around $4 800 an ounce (oz), with credible chances it will breach the $5 000/oz threshold in the next few months, and stay up there.  

The Government support systems for artisanal and small-scale miners remain intact as well, which encourages them to work as hard as last year, if not harder.  Gold-buying centres are all over the gold-producing areas across the country, thus artisanal and small-scale miners will be able to sell their output at sites close to their mines and get their money as quickly as before.

 

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