Competition and the prospect of uncertainty

Shelter Chieza Change Management
Towards the end of last year, I was invited to a seminar entitled “Economic predictions for 2014”. There were various speakers that included economic analysts and heads of organisations. Almost all the speakers seemed to dwell on uncertainties in the economy. It was one of those seminars where you cringe and wish you could excuse yourself early enough to attend other business. It made me wonder how as managers we are supposed to communicate such a message to our subordinates or make decisions.

How do we reason in a complex environment and what hope is there?

One gentleman said that although we can’t predict the future with certainty, we still have to plan for it.

We might need to draw conclusions from the available trend but it could be a challenge to look at what your competition will be like in three years.

What you can only do is use your expertise and knowledge to plan.

I recently discovered that uncertainty has dire effects on the human anatomy too.

According to science when you feel uncertain, your amygdale, which is an almond-shaped structure located in your temporal lobes, signals the rest of the brain that a survival response might be needed.

An organ called the prefrontal cortex receives the alarm call from the amygdale and can agree and take action or recognise that there’s no cause for concern and silence the amygdale.

One of the conclusions at the seminar was that it will be difficult to determine how the economy will perform this year.

We don’t know whether the economy will continue to recover, or whether companies will access lines of credit or whether we will be successful in stopping the rot in the economy such as corruption.

We should however prepare for possibilities.

In my line of work we have mastered the art of predicting our competitors’ moves.

Most of these are deciphered at the beginning of the year after annual planning meetings or external events such as budget/fiscal policy announcements by national financial authorities.

Legislation has also helped us to predict our competitor behaviour.

If you are not the market leader, watch how the leaders go about their business.

These generally dictate the pace in your industry.

They can easily move and sit like giant gorillas on top of you.

They can take your little market share by increasing their advertising slightly or buying you out.

That is what Samsung used to do, being a market leader in cellphone, appliances, industrial machines etc they can easily buy out their smaller competitors and incorporate their operations into its own and reap more profits.

Never assume that there is going to be universal economic effects.

We are all hoping for positive for growth this year and that has to come with proper planning..

Those that have ever gone fishing in a boat know that an incoming tide can result in contrasting fortunes.

While the tide will sweep all the boats in an area, what makes the different is the direction in which the boats may be steered.

Those receding waters may offer a lot of opportunities that were previously hidden from other boats.

Some of the opportunities will remain inaccessible to others.

So it is critical that we look beyond the uncertainties and plan for a successful 2014.

Till next week, may God richly bless you.