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Herald Reporter
The number of new daily Covid-19 infections in Zimbabwe fell each day for the last five days of last week, along with the rolling seven-day average, giving more hope that while infection rates are still very high, Zimbabwe has passed the peak of the present wave.
Deaths also fell for three days running with the rolling average finally levelling out on Saturday.
The deaths rates tend to follow infection rates, but surges or falls tend to occur about a week or two after the similar surge or fall in infection rates as it can take that long for someone to become seriously ill.
The number of active cases, that is the number still listed by the Ministry of Health and Child Care as ill, continues to rise to a record 51 136 by Saturday but finally started falling yesterday for the first time in the present spike to 49 612. While hospitalisations rose to their highest level in the present spike, to 416 by Friday evening, they had fallen to 296 on Saturday; the Ministry of Health and Child Care gives hospital statistics a day later than other statistics.
This means that almost all people sick with Covid-19 are recovering at home and not in need special care.
Of these hospital cases, just one was in intensive care on Friday, despite the high hospitalisation figure, but although total admissions dropped on Saturday four were in intensive care.
But both figures were a major drop from the figures earlier in the week. Severe cases drifted up from 37 on Friday to 39 on Saturday.
The rest were classified as having mild to moderate symptoms, the majority, but a few with no symptoms. 
Fairly often those with no symptoms or just mild symptoms are in hospital for other reasons or because the doctors consider they are at very high risk of becoming worse and so need to be monitored.
The number of new daily infections fell on Saturday to 2 106, a fairly major drop from the 3 263 on Friday, and that in turn was almost half the peak seen exactly a week earlier on Friday last week when they hit 6 181 before falling over the weekend, when there are fewer routine tests, and rising to 5 678 on Tuesday before starting a sustained fall for the rest of the week.
But it must be noted that the number of new cases almost always falls over weekends because fewer routine or employer-ordered tests are done on these days.
The seven-day rolling average, which tends to map trends more accurately since it evens out the daily peaks and troughs, dropped to 3 810 on Saturday, slightly above what was seen a week earlier and that is indicative that the peak average was reached on Tuesday with 4 580, the recorded rolling average figure in the entire Covid-19 pandemic since it hit Zimbabwe early last year.
The fall in infections now being seen is probably due to far greater compliance with the medical advice and health protocols with far more people in public now willing to be masked and to be more careful about social distancing and sanitising.
If this is correct they could easily surge again if people became careless.
Deaths reached a high in the present spurt of infections on Wednesday last week with 14, the first double figures since late September, before falling to 12 on Thursday, then eight on Friday and three on Saturday.
The total number of new infections last week, between Sunday and Saturday, was 26 671, almost half the active cases, and the deaths last week were 48.
Vaccinations continue to edge up with 199 528 doses given last week.
This was the highest number since the third week of November when a lot of schoolchildren were still being jabbed.
Vaccination rates tend to rise during infection peaks and fall as people become complacent when peaks retreat.
So far 4 053 889 people have received their first dose of which 3 069 526 have gone back for a second dose.
This translates to just over 27 percent of the entire population of Zimbabwe have entered the programme with at least one shot, or 43,18 percent of Zimbabweans aged 16 or over.
When we look at the fully vaccinated they now comprise 20,46 percent of the entire population of around 15 million, or 32,70 percent of those aged 16 and over.
The Health Ministry has set a target of the entire population of 16 and over, which is not much more than the 60 percent of the population considered the rock-bottom percentage for herd immunity.
So, we are only a third of the way there. Bulawayo now seriously leads the rest of the country.
During last week it went over half the target population of 16 and over receiving their second jab, reaching 50,1 percent. And 57,7 percent of the 16s and over have had their first shot.
The only real competition comes from next door Matabeleland North, with 58,4 percent of the 16s and over having had one shot but only 45,5 with both.
The only other 50 percent figure in the tables is Manicaland, which has seen 50,4 percent of its 16s and over having their first shot, although just 38,3 having both.
Most of the rest of Zimbabwe is below average.
Online Reporter