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Pretoria – The DA was leading the ANC in Johannesburg, according to IEC results available after midday yesterday, with just over a quarter of the city’s votes verified.
The DA was ahead in the city with 43.34 percent of the vote, followed by the ANC (41.17 percent) and the EFF (9.75 percent).
These were the results with 28 percent of the total votes verified.
Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane are among the hotly-contested metropolitan areas in this year’s local government elections.
News24 elections analyst Dawie Scholtz told News24 it was unlikely that any political party could secure more than 50 percent of the vote in Johannesburg.
“The question is: Who is going to be the biggest party — it’s probably going to be the ANC by the looks of the numbers,” Scholtz said.
“The question is whether DA plus EFF will reach 50 percent. I think that will be very tight. My feeling at this point is that it’s going to be about 45 percent ANC, 40 percent DA, 10 percent EFF.”
A key factor driving this year’s race in Johannesburg was the turnout of DA voters.
“In townships in Joburg, the turnout is around 55 percent and suburbs it’s looking at about 66 percent.”
The higher turnout in the suburbs would help the DA a lot, Scholtz said.
In 2011, the difference was 10 percentage points, and in 2014 it was six percentage points.
Meanwhile, the results could deliver a setback to the African National Congress (ANC), with early indications showing the party that ended apartheid was losing support. With the count well under way, early results put the ANC ahead nationwide but with its lowest-ever levels of backing.
The main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) was on course to hold Cape Town and was inching ahead in the capital Pretoria and the economic hub Johannesburg as well as in the city of Port Elizabeth.
“It looks like the ANC has been reduced and humbled in many ways,” Somadoda Fikeni, a political analyst, said. “It looks like the verdict coming from the urban areas is negative in such that many will start blaming the leader of the party [Jacob Zuma] because he has been limping from one particular negative story to the other since December when he fired the finance minister.”
Fikeni explained that there had been debates within the ANC whether to use Zuma as the “face of the party or not”.
“The solid support he got from within party … might not have worked well in urban centres where you have a high concentration of a highly-sophisticated middle class and an organised working class.”
The ANC has won more than 60 percent of the vote at every election since the country’s first multi-racial vote in 1994 when Nelson Mandela was sworn in as president.
With about half of the vote counted, the ANC had 52 percent support nationwide, with the DA on 30 percent and the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on seven percent, according to official results.
The count is seen as a marker ahead of the next general election due in 2019.
The poll is also a mid-term reflection on the performance of President Jacob Zuma, who has been plagued by economic woes and a series of scandals since taking office in 2009.
The ANC has dominated the political landscape since the fall of white-minority rule, but a faltering economy, rampant corruption and soaring unemployment have eaten into the party’s popularity.
A final Ipsos survey earlier this week placed the ANC and DA in a close battle.
Both the ANC and DA may be forced to court smaller parties and independent candidates to cobble together outright municipal majorities.
Even if the ANC maintains its hold on local power through party alliances, any overall drop in support would be a loss, said Silke.
Contesting its first local poll after bursting onto the scene in the 2014 general election, the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EEF) may find itself playing kingmaker.
The party, which won six percent of the vote in 2014, advocates land redistribution without compensation and the nationalisation of mines.
A record 26.3 million people registered to choose mayors and other local representatives responsible for hot-button issues including water, sanitation and power supplies.With most of the result due in Thursday, a major collapse of support for the ANC could pile pressure on Zuma, 74, to step down before his second term ends in 2019.
Online Reporter