Decision 2012: Which way will Zimbabwe go?

polls.
Further, if elections are held – which is likely around mid-2012 – what will the outcome be?
The three coalition partners, Zanu-PF, MDC-T and MDC, agree on one thing: the relationship has not been rosy.
The ideological differences, particularly between Zanu-PF and MDC-T, are staggering and this has made for near-impossible programme implementation by the Government in the three years of the uneasy alliance.
These differences have seen conflicting public positions being taken on national issues like the illegal Western sanctions on Zimbabwe, the indigenisation programme, and inadequate investment in agriculture and land reform.
Zanu-PF and President Mugabe wanted a general election last year.
However, continuing delays in the writing of a new constitution scuttled that.
The parties agreed to put a draft constitution to the test in a referendum before elections, and that now looks likely this year.
There are several legal routes to an election.
The parties agreed to have an election regardless of the outcome of the constitution plebiscite.
Secondly, the three parties can agree to disband the coalition thereby triggering an election.
Thirdly, President Mugabe as the Head of State and Government can dissolve Parliament and call for an election within 90 days.
It seems the parties are angling for the “referendum first” route, though Zanu-PF could push for dissolution of Parliament if the preferred route takes too long.
The MDC formations have of late been reluctant to go for elections after having earlier agitated for an end to the coalition.
Ironically, during talks to create the inclusive Government, the MDCs wanted the arrangement to last for no more than two years but are now back-pedalling.
Regardless, the MDCs acknowledge that the coalition is “dysfunctional” but remain noncommittal on an election.
The head of the University of Zimbabwe’s Political Science and Administration department, Dr Joseph Kurebwa, believes the parties will await the outcome of the constitution-making process.
“The parties agreed that the country would go to elections once there is a new constitution and this process has gone beyond the initial timelines.
“If they were to stick to that agreement then a new constitution should be in place around August and an election will be possible thereafter.
“However, on the other side, under the current constitution the term of the Government would end in 2013 and elections would be held by March of that year,” he says.
Dr Kurebwa says the major issues that will be under the spotlight in campaigning remain unchanged.
“It’s the parties that come up with their own policies but I do not think there will be any major shift from what we had in the past decade.
“It is those same issues that will continue to be the main focus of the parties.
“Zanu-PF is still pursuing its empowerment initiatives and will not shift from this because the programmes have not been completed.
“Their major rival, MDC-T, still have the same liberal policies that they have been pursuing since formation in 1999.”
Dr Kurebwa would not, however, hazard an opinion on who will be victorious in an election this year.
His university department usually runs a pre-poll survey and preparations for one will only be made when an election date has been confirmed.
Political scientist, Mr Goodwine Mureriwa, is certain an election will be held this year.
“It is not a question of if elections will be held but when they will be held.
“Looking at the present scenario, a party that has clarity of policy issues is going to win.
“In the past elections, the MDC in its various forms has taken advantage of the economic hardships that were brought by the effect of the illegal sanctions – that was their trump card and nothing else really.
“Given the stability that we have enjoyed in the past three years due to the adoption of multiple currencies, attention will be more on what each party has to offer.”
His considered view is that Zanu-PF still sets the pace in setting the national agenda on major policy issues.
These, he says, are land reforms, economic empowerment and maintaining the country’s sovereignty in the face of Western resource hunger.
“Even after the formation of the coalition government, Zanu-PF has continued to direct the agenda while the other parties have continued to act like they are still in opposition.
“The MDCs have not brought any practical policy issues except those that border on the abstract and are difficult to explain to the masses.
“That is why MDC-T’s Jobs and Upliftment and Investment Plan has not seen the light of the day up to today but the nation is well aware of the indigenisation programme.
“This is also seen by the issues they are pursuing in the current constitution-making exercise, which are foreign and have nothing really to do with the welfare of people,” he said.
The “foreign” issues he is referring to are “gay rights” and other “abstracts” that really do not impact on national livelihoods.
Another analyst, Mr Sydney Chisi, is also convinced elections will be held this year.
This is because the process of making a new constitution, in his calculation, can be completed before mid-year, and secondly because the parties want out of the coalition.
“There is no doubt that elections will be there this year . . .
“We are told the drafting (of the constitution) will be done by end of January, thus the next 11 months should accommodate a second all-stakeholders conference, Parliamentary hearings and a referendum.
“Given that both MDCs and Zanu-PF don’t want the coalition anymore, it is critical that the referendum will not be divisive.”
How Sadc views things will also be of importance, though not pivotal.
For years, the regional body has interested itself in Zimbabwe’s political and economic affairs.
This has seen successive South African presidents (Thabo Mbeki, Kgalema Motlanthe and Jacob Zuma) being appointed the bloc’s mediators between the political parties.
Mr Chisi says certain “reforms” that the MDCs would like Sadc to institute could be used to delay the polls.
“This might derail processes and depending on internal agreements, elections might then be moved into 2013,” said Mr Chisi.
There appears to be a very strong lobby to have elections in 2013.
The public position of those taking such a stance is that this will provide more time for the political and economic situation to further stabilise.
However, beneath the surface appears to be a more Machiavellian agenda: the MDCs and their supporters hope that President Mugabe will not be in a position to contest a tough election by that time.
At the age of 87, there has been a lot of interest in his health over the past three years.
A Zanu-PF insider says, “The private media (who are largely aligned to the MDCs) are cultivating the idea that President Mugabe is more or less physically unfit to rule.
“It tells us two things: that the MDCs are admitting that they cannot outfox our leader politically and thus want nature to play a part in their campaign, and that MDC-T are hypocrites.
“I say hypocrites because we all know that they did not want elections in 2013 but rather in 2010.
“But they have seen that President Mugabe is showing no signs of slowing down and so now they claim they want elections in 2013 for the good of the electorate and yet they care not what their supporters want.”
To show their confidence in President Mugabe’s ability to secure another term of governance for Zanu-PF, the party in December unanimously endorsed him as their sole presidential candidate.
More importantly, at that Annual National People’s Conference that endorsed the candidate, the party directed President Mugabe to ensure he calls an election this year. – Southern Times.