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Vikas Pandey
India is beginning to reopen after a second wave of Covid-19 infections devastated the country in April and May. But now experts warn that a third wave could strike in the next few months.
Courts have questioned state governments over their preparedness, some experts have warned that a third wave could hit within 12-16 weeks, and others are worried that new variants, including the much-talked about Delta plus, could weaken existing vaccines.
Delta plus is related to the Delta, an existing variant of concern first identified in India last year that was responsible for the deadly second wave.
But how realistic are these fears? Subsequent waves are expected, but their severity and spread depend on a number of factor.
Covid safety protocols
The number of average daily cases in India has fallen to just over 50,000 in recent days, down from the peaks of 400,000 in May. The drop in numbers has largely been attributed to strict lockdowns by states.
Crowding in markets, election rallies and religious festivals was blamed for the second wave. Bad policy decisions, poor surveillance and ignoring early warnings were some of the other reasons. If the same mistakes are repeated, experts say, that could hasten the third wave.
Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, a public policy and health systems expert, says India is once again at a delicate phase and how people behave will largely determine the fate of the next wave.
He says it’s important that states reopen the economy gradually. “If we rush into reopening and people don’t follow Covid safety protocols, we only help the virus spread faster.”
He advises that safety protocols need to be implemented at “a localised level” – if specific markets and businesses don’t follow rules, they should be penalised.
Can new variants pose a threat?
The Delta variant largely drove the second wave. Experts believe that more such variants could appear in future if the virus is allowed to run through the still susceptible population.
The Indian government has announced that a new variant, named Delta plus, is a “variant of concern”. But there is not enough data at the moment to say that it could cause a third wave. However experts say the scenario “could change within weeks”.
Epidemiologist Dr Lalit Kant says the threat of new variants derailing progress will exist as long as the virus keeps spreading. “We need to further scale up our sequencing efforts to identify dangerous variants early and apply containment measures,” he adds.
India had sequenced 30,000 samples until June, but experts believe more needs to be done. Dr A Fathahudeen, who has treated thousands of Covid patients, says current vaccines appear to work on known variants – but there is no guarantee that they will work on new variants. There have also been instances of people becoming ill despite having been vaccinated – especially after getting the first dose.- BBC.
Online Reporter