Online Reporter
As the global superpowers jostle for supremacy in critical minerals and rare earth elements, Zimbabwe finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. Despite possessing a world-class mineral endowment, the country remains significantly underexplored — a gap that policymakers now view as both a challenge and a strategic opportunity. With the mining sector serving as the lynchpin of Zimbabwe’s economic transformation agenda, industry leaders are calling for a concerted exploration push to bridge the divide between geological potential and tangible wealth creation. However, junior explorers — geologist-led small mining companies that search for new mineral deposits — account for an estimated 70 percent to 90 percent of all new mineral discoveries worldwide, while major mining houses, run by engineers with a low tolerance for uncertainty, have made less than 5 percent over the past 25 years. In this classic model, the major is effectively the junior’s “customer”, acquiring or joint-venturing the discovery to build the mine — a dynamic locally validated by Huayou Cobalt’s 2022 takeover of Prospect Resources’ Arcadia lithium find. It is believed Zimbabwe’s legislative framework must cater for both —incentivising junior risk-takers to explore while assuring them of a ready buyer, and simultaneously creating a stable, attractive environment for the majors who ultimately operationalise the nation’s mineral wealth. In the wake of the recent Exploration Symposium held at the Mine Entra exhibition in Bulawayo, The Sunday Mail sat down with MR ALLAN DOLAN, the managing director of Duration Gold, who was one of the discussants at the event, to dissect the road ahead and the commercial viability of the nation’s subterranean riches.
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Q: In your view, what specific policy changes are needed to lower the barriers to entry for junior exploration companies operating in Zimbabwe?
A: Changes in policy, especially sudden ones that do not fall within a well-thought-out national policy framework, create uncertainty, which is the enemy of both junior explorers and majors alike.
Zimbabwe’s current mining legislation has proven resilient and effective over the years — resulting in significant discoveries during the 1980s and 1990s.
The issue, however, is often not with existing policy, but its proper and timely implementation; for example, the prompt processing of applications of all types by the Ministry (of Mines and Mining Development) and the Mining Affairs Board, from granting exclusive prospecting orders (EPOs) and their extensions to mining leases, et cetera.
It is important to appreciate that major mines are not only discovered by large-scale or regional “green fields” exploration but are also “grown” organically by developing a small mine through “brownfields” exploration into a larger mine. In fact, this has been the case for the vast majority of Zimbabwe’s mines.
So, we need policies that encourage junior explorers, who typically have an annual budget of US$4 million to US$5m million, to start small and develop big over time — after all, the global average time it takes from discovery to mine construction is 24 years, according to Jefferies Group LLC, the well-regarded US based investment bank — and its getting longer, not shorter.
So, in general, a well-thought-out national exploration policy that takes into account the views of all stakeholders — from the junior explorers, the majors, owners or surface rights, Government — is critical.
Thereafter, and equally as important, the discipline not to change or tinker with policy that has been introduced — or is already working — even if it takes time. Exploration and mine development corners cannot be cut.
Q: Experts say greenfield discoveries typically face 1-in-1 000 odds. How then can the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development restructure exclusive prospecting licence (EPL) frameworks to make high-risk exploration financially viable?
A: Junior explorers start their journey by collecting and analysing as much available data about a country and its prospectivity as they can find.
So, having a well-resourced Geological Survey that makes all historic exploration data generated by prior explorers, as well as Government-generated data in terms of geological maps and the like, readily available without cost is key.
Further, the Geological Survey should be funded by Government so it can actively expand this database through its own work, whether it be more detailed mapping of Zimbabwe’s geology to updated airborne surveys. Again, all of this to be made available to junior explorers at a nominal cost.
Q: With the average global cost of finding a new deposit sitting at between US$170 million and US$190 million, what financial incentives can local financial institutions offer to support early-stage geological mapping?
A: General geological mapping is the purview of the Geological Survey, an important arm of the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development.
The key is the Geological Survey, which not only acts as the country’s repository of all historical geological and exploration data, but also adds to it on an annual basis. To do this, the survey must be prioritised and well-funded.
Q: In your view, what structural factors could be preventing Tier 1 Western mining operators from committing long-term capital to Zimbabwe’s mining sector?
A: Discovering and building a new mine takes 25 years on average — and then the production period commences hopefully another 10 to 25 years.
Exploration to discovery costs amount to between US$170 million and US$190 million, with mine construction costs measured in many more hundreds of millions.
The time horizon is long — 35 to 50 years — so, certainty that the rules of the business won’t change is critical, particularly in terms of security of mining title, tax increases and the continuity of any financial incentives granted.
Q: So, how can Zimbabwe create a predictable fiscal regime that is compatible with successful mining jurisdictions across Africa?
A: Ultimately, the content and objectives of a country’s exploration and mining policy is its sovereign prerogative. That said, the choices it makes, many of which will involve tangible and intangible tradeoffs, should be well-informed, based on facts as well as an understanding of the country’s competitive position relative to other jurisdictions competing for the same foreign investment.
In my view, the starting point should be a comparative analysis of the current exploration, mining and fiscal regime — both are intertwined and can’t be analysed separately — by an international, independent expert, which is then made public.
Such an objective analysis will provide invaluable insight into the possible options, and their implications, when formulating policy for stakeholder discussion and, eventually, both mining and fiscal legislation.
Q: What lessons can be drawn from major transactions, such as Prospect Resources’ US$378 million Arcadia Lithium sale, to establish consistent exit mechanisms for junior investors?
A: The discovery of the Acardia lithium deposit and its subsequent sale to Huayou Cobalt by Prospect in 2022 confirms the junior explorer-major mining house model of mine discovery and construction.
However, it also begs the question: Why only one such transaction in recent memory? The answer will be found in the independent comparative analysis discussed above that will answer the two key, but related, questions: What does Zimbabwe need to attract its fair share of the annual US$12 billion global spend on exploration; and equally important, what do the major mining houses need to joint-venture or acquire a junior explorer’s discovery?
Q: How do current mine depletion rates threaten the country’s development aspirations, especially within the next four years?
A: I call this the GDP (gross domestic product) gap analysis — a comparison of what existing mines are contributing to Zimbabwe’s GDP today; at what rate this contribution will reduce over, say, the next five years (the National Development Strategy time frame) and 24-year period (the average time it takes to discover and construct a new mine) as these existing older mines deplete and are shut down; and a realistic projection of what new mines (mineral, size of resource, annual production as well as capital and operating costs) will be discovered and constructed over the next five and 24 years, and what they will contribute to Zimbabwe’s GDP.
Q: Lastly, Duration Gold owns Vubachikwe Mine in Gwanda, which is currently under care and maintenance. What are your medium- to long-term plans to increase output and what steps will you be taking to grow it into a big mine?
A: The Mining Lease 16 (incorporating Vubachikwe Mine) Phased Expansion Programme has been developed by Duration and its technical advisers based on over
eight technical studies completed over three years.
The programme will see the historically small Vubachikwe Mine, which produced less than 10 000 ounces (about 283,5 kilogrammes) of gold per year at its height developed into a medium Tier 2 or 3 mine, producing up to 200 000 ounces (5,66 tonnes) per year over a five-year period at a cost of several hundred million dollars.
Implementation of the programme commenced in early 2026 with further resource confirmation drilling and metallurgical studies, with processing plant design and procurement underway. It is well-documented that Vubachikwe underwent a difficult period.
Growth plans were delayed by self-interested individuals and companies working in concert who believed they could use underhand techniques to acquire the property for little consideration.
We have now truly turned a page on that chapter and have an excellent management team and staff complement in place who are 100 percent supportive and energised for success. This, combined with the much-improved macro investment and growth environment, gives me concrete reasons to feel very optimistic about the future.
