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Opposition parties have in recent months been working on what they touted as a “grand coalition” to challenge Zanu-PF in the 2018 elections.
However, after promising so much, they delivered nothing close to anything grand on Tuesday. Tuesday was supposed to be the moment to consummate the alliance to campaign against President Mugabe and the ruling party in elections in two years’ time but what we saw was a coterie of political unknowns and established losers who have time to waste.
Four of the five parties that signed the agreement have never won an election at any level while the biggest of them participated in the 2013 elections but lost dismally.
To most Zimbabweans the four outfits — Mavambo Kusile Dawn (MKD), Renewal Democrats of Zimbabwe (RDZ), Democratic Assembly for Restoration and Empowerment (Dare) and Zimbabweans United for Democracy (Zunde) — are just political parties on paper with no sensible structures but prolific in releasing high-sounding statements on social media. Identifying them as political parties is to mischaracterise them. They are one-man outfits no different from Egypt Dzinemunhenzva, Kisinoti Mukwazhe, Langton Towungana, Paul Siwela and the like. The fifth party MDC led by Professor Welshman Ncube is a political fluke that won some seats in 2008 but is now finished amid defections of key figures and leadership squabbles.
Dare leader Gilbert Dzikiti was named chairman of the Coalition of Democrats (Code). Tendai Biti of the People’s Democratic Party, Prof Lovemore Madhuku of the National Constitutional Assembly and Dumiso Dabengwa’s Zapu were expected to join but didn’t, claiming they still have to fully consult internally. PDP and Zapu sent representatives to the signing ceremony who gave solidarity messages. Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC and Zimbabwe People First were expected too but they were not part of the event.
“They’ve at this stage indicated unreadiness to walk with us for now. We’ve said to them, the Code door will remain open for engagement,” Prof Ncube said referring to MDC-T and ZimPF.
“On our part as the collective, multi-laterally and bi-laterally, we’ve committed ourselves to continuously talk to all those who say they’re unhappy with the state of our country as it is. We’ve committed ourselves to talk to all those who say they’re opposed to the current government and we’ve said let’s come together whether you’re MDC-T, whether you’re People First or by whatever description, we’ve said we want to be inclusive.”
As presently constituted, Code knows that their movement’s only chance of making some electoral impact is if MDC-T and ZimPF overcome internal disagreements over the efficacy of the alliance and Mujuru and Tsvangirai agreeing to subordinate their personal ambitions.
To us, these two factors will most likely scuttle the efforts to structure some sort of electoral alliance to field consensus candidates from ward level right up to the presidency in 2018.
We understand that Tsvangirai sees himself as the obvious candidate to challenge President Mugabe. He has done so since 2000, but lost at every attempt. He only led President Mugabe in the presidential election in 2008 but failed to garner 50 percent plus one of the valid vote. This necessitated a presidential election run-off which he lost.
Another factor that his lieutenants assert in campaigning for him is that his party has consistently won some seats in councils and parliament. That is as far as it goes with Tsvangirai’s own ambitions.
Below him are several people, starting with his deputy, Thokozani Khupe who have their own ambitions and reckon that a coalition including the likes of Mujuru will mean they have to step aside for the former Zanu-PF second-in-command. Reports say Khupe, who exercises substantial influence over Tsvangirai and has a constituency in Matabeleland, has actually warned him to drop the coalition pursuit or face an internal revolt. Tsvangirai is unprepared for yet another revolt.
Mujuru, touting her liberation war credentials and experience in both the ruling party and government is also declaring her interest as the consensus candidate. In addition, she was fired from Zanu-PF together with, among others, Rugare Gumbo and Didymus Mutasa, experienced hands who have their own ambitions that might derail the coalition even if she decides to go for it.
Gumbo’s response to Tuesday’s Code launch sounds pregnant.
“They’re free to do what they want, like forming a coalition,” he said, “but for us there’s going to be an analysis to establish the benefits of having such a coalition. But if their coalition is for the sake of raising money, then we’re not part of it. We’re interested in a coalition that answers all the problems that Zimbabweans are facing.”
This suggests his personal indifference to the coalition. We don’t know if others in the ZimPF don’t agree with him.
It therefore looks unlikely that all these figures and interests will successfully coalesce around one centre of authority to actually challenge the ruling party and do so successfully in 2018.
Even if the alliance succeeds, Zanu-PF is unfazed.
“We don’t have time for hallucinations and by the way, we’re a democratic country so people must be free to dream,” ruling party spokesman, Cde Simon Khaya Moyo said.
derick.khumalo