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THE latest Afrobarometer survey results that show that President Robert Mugabe and the ruling Zanu-PF party enjoy massive support among Zimbabweans should serve as a wake up call to the opposition parties in the country to put their houses in order and accept thereality that they are fast losing relevance.
The survey — conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), in partnership with Afrobarometer, both respected research institutions in November 2014 — shows that President Mugabe enjoys the trust of the people with 63 percent of Zimbabweans putting their lot with him. Cde Mugabe enjoys greater support in the rural areas where 70 percent trust him while in urban areas 45 percent of the people support him.
The survey results — released on Tuesday, also indicate that by gender, 62 percent of men trust the President while he is trusted by 64 percent of the women. His Zanu-PF party enjoys 54 percent of trust among Zimbabweans. Titled “Public perceptions on corruption”, the survey also found that religious leaders are influential in the country well above the influence of the opposition political parties.
“Opposition parties are the least trusted,” reads part of the survey report. “Only a third of the population trusts them”. It also gave the thumbs up to the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission saying 46 percent of the population trusts the electoral body. Afrobarometer also commissioned another survey prior to the 2013 harmonised elections which predicted Zanu-PF’s thumping victory in that poll.
Writing on his blog in the wake of the latest survey results, United Kingdom-based law lecturer and former advisor to MDC-T president Morgan Tsvangirai, Alex Magaisa, urged his compatriots in the opposition movement to take the outcome of the survey seriously, introspect and accept the stark reality that they are fast losing touch with the electorate and could soon be wiped off the political landscape.
“Zimbabwe is an interesting country, where, very often, what appear to be popular perceptions do not always tally with the actual realities on the ground. To many people who are reading this and who think they know better, the results of the Afrobarometer survey will shock them and they will probably dismiss them outright,” wrote Magaisa.
“But they should listen more, rather than assume the defensive mode and thereby dismiss the survey results. That would be careless. Since this survey was done by respected and reputable research organisations, naturally, it commands attention and respect. And lest we forget, the last time these two carried out a similar survey, back in 2012, they were dismissed in some quarters, especially in the opposition, but this attitude was not helpful. The outcome of their survey seemed to back the outcome of July 13”.
He added, “Either they were closer to the truth or they were part of a grand conspiracy, though I think the latter suggestion would be churlish. Like all surveys, there are bound to be weaknesses, but I would rather people, especially in the opposition, use these survey results to understand the terrain in which they are operating and therefore, to map out strategies to deal with the challenges”.
Magaisa noted that an interesting feature of the survey was that the results back President Mugabe’s his rule and are also consistent with the outcome of the 2013 election. This result, he said, suggested that he (Cde Mugabe) had maintained his support, notwithstanding what had gone on since then.
We are inclined to agree with Magaisa’s grim assessment of the fortunes of the opposition parties in Zimbabwe given the outcome of the survey. We have no reason to doubt the authenticity and accuracy of the results since the survey was done by reputable organisations with a history of conducting polls some of which heavily criticised President Mugabe and Zanu-PF.
The fractious nature of the opposition in Zimbabwe where the original MDC has split into several formations after failing numerous times to dislodge Zanu-PF and President Mugabe could have led to the plummeting fortunes of the movement. On the other hand, President Mugabe has consistently led his party and maintained unity despite upheavals linked to succession issues.
What is clear from the survey is that the President is the central figure and embodiment of Zanu-PF and his appeal to the electorate, while obvious in the rural areas, is also beginning to make inroads into urban areas — perceived strongholds of the opposition. The removal of former Vice President Joice Mujuru and her cabal from Zanu-PF is unlikely to dent the party’s chances in the 2018 harmonised elections as long as it maintains its current policies and coalesces around the leadership of Cde Mugabe.
Online Reporter