adminenvironmental governance, sustainable development and green- house gas emissions would subside.
Perhaps even the Durban Climate Conference in December this year would be cancelled and replaced by something else, maybe a summit on global cooling!
If the earth cooled, human beings would award themselves an excuse to perpetuate environmental degradation without fear of anything or anyone in the name of development. These are extremes based on the assumption of a reverse trend in current global climate patterns. They are debatable. But here is a crude prediction to grease world concerns about warming of the earth.
The prospect for the world cooling even in a millennium is nil, according to the Meteorological Services Department.
“Such a scenario is not envisaged anytime in the near future,” emphasised Meteorological Services Department director Mr Tich Zinyemba in an interview recently.
He added: “Even if all air pollution was to stop today, the gases that have already been emitted into the atmosphere are enough to result in continued warming for thousands of years to come.”
Scientists have proven that carbon emissions are the biggest driver of global warming.
At least 30 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide is dumped into the atmosphere yearly by industry, says the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Between 2009 and 2010 greenhouse gas emissions rose by 5 percent and at this rate climate experts say it would be impossible to contain global temperatures from rising above the targeted two degrees Celsius by 2050, which is generally deemed manageable.
In Zimbabwe climate change has been real. Temperature records show that the country’s climate has on average been warming and has warmed by approximately 0,7 degrees Celsius since the 1960s. This warming trend is in line with most parts of the Southern Africa region, particularly the interior of the sub continent, says the Met Office. But the idea of the earth cooling is not entirely new.
The earth has gone through glacial or cooling periods in the past popularly referred to as the Ice Age. The earth survived this, but human interference has had devastating effects on the world’s climate.
Climate change specialist Dr Leonard Unganai provides some insight in the event global warming reversed into cooling. He uses human body temperature to explain the extremes of warming and cooling of the earth.
“Imagine what happens when your body temperature significantly cools below the optimum 37 degrees Celsius?” Dr Unganai quipped.
“Doctors say you suffer from hypothermia and that can be dangerous. The body will just not function properly, you may even experience mental collapse. It’s interesting to note that the earth system will also be affected in a more or less similar way. So both excessive warming and cooling are no good for the earth system and its various components,” he said.
The average temperature of the earth surface is about 15 degrees Celsius, which is able to support most plant and animal life. Significant cooling below this temperature has a wide range of implications even for weather systems.
A situation where the earth is able to balance its systems naturally would be preferred. Actually, it is possible. But this works on the assumption that human influence in the affairs of nature is drastically limited, better even, completely erased.
As appreciated by all and sundry, the human race is not going anywhere. It is here to stay and over the years population growth has been explosive. New corrupt minds including a few sober ones are being born everyday piling pressure on man’s insatiable desire to search out the secrets of nature.
Unless there is a dramatic improvement of consciousness to the environment, human beings will continuously interfere with the safe and efficient functioning of the ecosystem. Such interference has pronounced itself loudly in the form of global warming and climate change, and their attendant effects like droughts, floods, violent storms, heat waves etc.
Dr Unganai says in the absence of human exploitation planet earth would manage itself properly, regulating its temperatures to an equilibrium.
“The earth’s climate system is always in a state of self re-organisation to get back to a state of balance,” he said.
“That’s why extreme weather events occur (droughts, floods, extreme cold, extreme heat, etc), it’s a way of the climate system trying to re-organise itself . . . So it’s not surprising if we get into some cooling phase. What I have just explained assumes nature at work without much human interference.
“The difference with today’s situation is that human activities are interfering with nature, disturbing the normal functioning and thereby casting some doubt as to whether nature can reverse the current warming just like that.”
Human beings are generally cited as the greatest enemy to the environment. The menace they have caused on nature is well documented. Some governments have started showing limited concern to improving environmental management.
What then is the opportunity the current efforts to save planet earth will yield results?
Results will at best be mitigatory, but of course humankind does not want to seem to be doing nothing about the problems they have caused. So, although success will be limited, human beings have started playing a part in curbing greenhouse gas emissions hoping nature would do the rest.
In Zimbabwe the debate about whether climate change is real has been replaced by the debate on what needs to be done to adapt to the changing system.
Mr Zinyemba said: “Zimbabwe should help in mitigation against climate change by taking such measures as afforestation, eliminating veld fires and slowing down on unnecessary forest clearance as trees act as carbon sinks.
“Promotion of cleaner production technologies in industry can also play a part in reducing the amount of carbon emitted . . .”
Zimbabwe should now turn focus and attention on the expected increase in the vagaries of weather and climate particularly rainfall patterns, which affect agricultural and industrial productivity as well as human life, Mr Zinyemba said.
There has been a noticeable decrease in rainfall throughout Zimbabwe with a decline of almost 5 percent over the northern half of the country and of about 15 percent in the southern and western parts since 1900.
Matabeleland and Masvingo have felt the effects of the current climate change more than any other region in Zimbabwe, with a higher frequency of drought. However, more awareness still needs to be raised in Zimbabwe on the science of climate change among all the economic actors.
Poor appreciation of prudent environmental governance strategies, can only add to the misery of global warming and climate change.
- Feedback: [email protected]
Bongani Ndlovu
Online Reporter