adminSamuel Kadungure Agriculture Reporter
AGRICULTURE experts have dissuaded farmers from making uninformed and spontaneous decisions to plant grain crops for the 2015 /16 season — urging them to act on sound agronomical advice — since the seasonal cycle, rainfall and weather patterns have changed. As farmers looked forward to rains for this summer cropping season, some are referring nostalgically to the “good, old days” when weather patterns used to be dependable and the start of the planting season unambiguous.
Today’s climate has deviated from the past — the seasonal cycle, rainfall and weather patterns have altered due to climate change — occasioning frequent droughts, crop pest and disease incidences.
Temperature has increased drastically and the winter period has shortened. Not only do this climate variability and climate change affect crop production, but also water access and availability, human and livestock health may also cause damage to dwellings and infrastructure.
Even the production of horticultural produce and fruits, including the common varieties of mangoes, have been affected by the increased variations in rainfall, dry spells, temperature and drought occurrences.
This has put to the fore the need for farmers to diversify their livelihoods and sources of income and take up emerging technologies in bee-keeping, small livestock, nutritional gardens, goat-farming, cattle-fattening, drip irrigation and mushroom to broaden their livelihoods and streams of income.
Zimbabwe is an agro-based country whose economy is at the mercy of the vagaries of the weather and diversification contributes positively to livelihood sustainability because it reduces proneness to stress and shocks.
Zimbabwe’s rainfall season usually starts in October, but indications are that it has further drifted to mid and end of November. The end of the rains is also varied, ending usually early February, and it important for farmers to enthusiastically study weather forecasts.
A localised rainfall forecast released by the Government recently indicated that for the period January to March 2016, Manicaland, Matabeleland South, Matabeleland North, Bulawayo, Masvingo and the southern parts of the Midlands provinces were likely to receive below normal rainfall.
For the period October to December, the same areas would have experienced normal to below normal rainfall. A regional outlook issued by the Sadc Climate Services Centre in August indicated that most mainland Sadc countries, including Zimbabwe, would receive between normal to below normal rainfall.
A normal season is when an area receives between 75 and 125 percent of its long-term average in a sub-season (OND or JFM). Simply put, this will be a good season based on the cumulative amount received in a sub-season.
Below normal is when an area receives below 75 percent of its long- term average for the sub-season. Basically, based on amount of rainfall received in a sub-season this will be a bad season. Above normal is when an area receives more than 125 percent of its long term mean for a particular sub-season.
The changing weather patterns are not unique in Zimbabwe or the region, but are being experienced around the world. The delays in the rains are a direct result of climate change. Climate variability and climate change increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as drought — which pose a serious threat to agricultural production and household food security.
The release into the atmosphere of “greenhouse gases” — especially carbon dioxide, methane and other heat-trapping gases — has been identified as one of the main causes of increasing temperatures around the world, also known as global warming.
The noxious gases released into the atmosphere are reportedly also responsible for increasing the size of the hole in the ozone layer, which protects the earth’s atmosphere, from dangerous rays from out of space.
The twin-evil of global warming and ozone layer depletion is responsible for the extremism and changing nature of weather patterns. Much of Zimbabwe has been experiencing a heat wave over the past month, occasionally broken by light, scattered showers, raising concerns among a majority of the population that the country could be headed for a drought.
Agritex Officer for Manicaland Mr Godfrey Mamhare warned farmers against making uninformed and rushed decisions to plant in communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture, but which have not received rains of at least 25mm. Only Rusitu, in Chimanimani, received 42mm.
“Only those in Rusitu can talk of planting because the area received 42mm, which has sufficiently recharged soil moisture to cause germination. It would be dangerous for farmers without any irrigation facilities in the rest of Manicaland to plant now.
“We do not advise farmers to take risks. They should take a cue from weather forecast. If they plant, and the rains fail to continue, it would spell disaster. They can start planting when their respective communities receive 25mm of rains,” said Mr Mamhare.
Zimbabwe Farmers Union (ZFU) director Mr Paul Zakariya said farmers should stagger planting their crops, plant short season drought tolerant maize varieties, practice conservation agriculture.
Farmers in drier and low-lying areas like Buhera, Lowveld, Chisumbanje should not experiment with maize as severe hunger that often spreads like a cancer in these areas is partly because of planting crops (maize) unsuitable for their areas. Mr Zakariya challenged Government to invest in irrigation and to prioritise funding cloud seeding.
“Climate change is a reality, so Government, the private sector and development partners should invest in irrigation for the nation to navigate frictional factors and shocks emanating from this trend,” said Mr Zakariya. The Zimbabwe National Water Authority (Zinwa) said the Save Catchment — which comprises of Manicaland, Mashonaland East and Masvingo provinces — is expected to have flows in the range 2 495 526,5 to 4 477 378,8 mega litres if the MSD forecasts were anything go by.
Zinwa stated that much of the flows generated in the catchment would be lost due to the poor distribution of the dams which cover only 12,2 percent of the catchment.
“On average the dam levels are expected to be in the range 57,8 to 78,3 percent full on average by end of March. As at September 4, 2015, dam levels in Save Catchment stood at 67,3 percent full on average. Generally the forecast is not very favourable for irrigation purposes in this catchment particularly for the Chisumbanje estates. Chances of flooding risk in the low-lying areas of Middle Sabi are high especially during the second half of the season (JFM).
“This is because most of the upstream areas will experience normal to above normal rainfall therefore inducing high flows that can affect the downstream areas,” says Zinwa in its analysis.
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