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Gibson Nyikadzino Herald Correspondent
The just ended by-elections held on Saturday, with most contested seats in urban areas, saw Zanu PF successfully defending seven seats it won in 2018 and winning an extra two with 128 399 votes in total, while the main opposition CCC retained 19 seats but lost two from what its predecessor won in 2018, and only just edged Zanu PF with 129 799 votes.
Despite winning nine of the total contested seats, the difference between the cumulative number of votes between Zanu-PF and the CCC stood at 1 400 as the governing party added two seats to the already 145 National Assembly seats it has, hence enhancing its two-thirds parliamentary majority.
Of the contested 28 seats coming after the recalls within the opposition, following the 2018 elections, 21 seats belonged to the opposition while seven to Zanu PF.
Zanu PF retained its seats in Gokwe Central, Chivi South, Mberengwa South, Murehwa South, Marondera East, Mwenezi East and Tsholotsho North, and won new territory in Epworth and Mutasa South constituencies.
Statistics indicate that Zanu PF won 48.3 percent of Saturday’s votes, while the opposition CCC won 48.9 percent with the MDC-Alliance taking home 2.6 percent. This was despite the fact that only eight of the seats were rural seats and 20 were urban seats where opposition presidential candidates tend to do better.
The upshot is that next year Zanu PF should retain its two thirds Parliamentary majority with a bit extra and that President Mnangagwa should sail through to his second term with an increased majority since Zanu PF did better even in the seats it lost than the CCC did in the seats it lost.
In the Presidential election it is votes that are counted, not seats.
Political analysts yesterday told The Herald that basing on the figures at hand, Zanu PF made inroads in the by-elections after it wrestled two seats from the opposition.
Zanu PF penetration of traditional opposition strongholds like Epworth, Chiredzi Urban and Chitungwiza Municipality councils prompted the analysts to opine that the political ground is already tilting further in favour of Zanu PF, already the majority party, and so the majorities won in 2018 should be even larger next year.
“It is easy to tell that Zanu PF is going to win in the next general elections because they worked hard as a party in terms of organisation. This is predictable.
“Remember Zanu PF brought back the district co-ordinating committees and afterwards they were on record that they restructured over 74 000 party cells that increased their party membership to over 3,4 million members. That exercise is still going on.
“This is a huge party and it means 2023 is already in the bag,” said Mr Luckmore Msipa, a political analyst.
Mr Msipa said the voting behaviour of the electorate was becoming clearly inclined to Zanu PF and that the CCC party, an offshoot of the MDC-T, is never ready to offer people the much-needed direction as it has not identified itself differently because of its history with the MDC-T.
Another analyst, Mr Mugove Chisvo, said Zanu PF has had an upsurge in numbers and “that it ate into two opposition strongholds” means it is not getting tired anytime soon.
Mr Chisvo said Zanu PF cut the opposition’s lead to regain its formidable position in Epworth.
“If you look at the margins, it means Zanu PF has improved. Elections are about margins. In urban areas, while the opposition won, the margins were not humongous. Zanu PF here emerged the winner,” said Mr Chisvo.
Early this month, CCC’s interim vice-president ,Prof Welshman Ncube, admitted that Zanu PF is becoming stronger each year based on statistics from the previous harmonised elections.
Speaking about Zanu PF on his Twitter handle, Prof Ncube wrote: “The imperative of convergence and unity in the southern provinces which inform the strategic options we have for 2023 are the electoral statistics for the parliamentary elections. They never lie nor do they yield to slogans and emotions. We can only ignore them at our peril!”
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