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Edgar Vhera
Agriculture Specialist Writer
FARMERS must ride on the opportunity presented by current global tobacco deficits, thanks to last season’s El Nino-inspired drought to expand production and use good agronomic practices desired by world markets, experts have said.
Tobacco expert and administrator for Tobacco Farmer Talk (TFT) farmers’ WhatsApp group Mr Phineas Mukomberanwa said this recently while analysing prospects for the 2024/25 summer season.
“The global tobacco industry has entered an era of unprecedented shortages with a marked reduction in the availability of the crop worldwide from traditional producers like Brazil, India, China, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Zambia, which were affected by weather calamities.
“As the 2024/25 production season approaches, the world must contend with the potential implications of these shortages on supply, demand and pricing,” he said.
According to statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the top six global unmanufactured tobacco producing countries were China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, United States and Zimbabwe in that order for the year 2022. Because of her bumper harvest of 296 million kilogrammes in 2023, Zimbabwe might have climbed from her sixth to fourth position.
As a result of the El Nino-induced drought the country’s production of the golden leaf was cut by about 20 percent with about 232 million kilogrammes sold in the ongoing marketing season.
Mr Mukomberanwa said Brazil reported a drop in production due to adverse weather conditions with India’s yields also affected in some regions by inconsistent rains.
“While precise global statistics are still being compiled, early estimates suggest that world tobacco supplies could be down by as much as five to 10 percent from their usual levels, impacting major markets and cigarette manufacturers alike.
“Demand patterns are shifting in intriguing ways with traditional markets like China and the USA remaining strong players but new demand is emerging in less traditional markets adding pressure on already constrained supplies,” he added.
Serbia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other countries in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are experiencing rising demand, as smoking rates remain stable or even increase.
The UAE, in particular, has seen a surge in demand driven by tourism and a growing expatriate population while Serbia’s tobacco market has also grown as smoking remains a deeply embedded cultural habit, he said.
The current global shortage will likely persist into the 2024/25 season, particularly as environmental and logistical challenges continue to affect production.
“This could drive up tobacco prices, as manufacturers and merchants scramble to secure the limited supply available. Countries like Zimbabwe, with its reputation for producing high-quality flue-cured Virginia tobacco, may find itself in a position of greater market influence,” observed Mr Mukomberanwa.
He said Zimbabwe must invest in sustainable tobacco practices, strengthen contract farming models, improve infrastructure, leverage emerging markets, partner with global tobacco companies and enhance value addition.
Officially opening the inaugural World Tobacco Africa Exposition (Expo) in Harare recently Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development Minister, Dr Anxious Masuku said the sad story of Zimbabwe was that though accounting for six percent of the world’s total production, its exports were a mere US$1, 5 billion, nowhere near the six percent value of US$912 billion traded.
“If we were to value add our 2023 raw tobacco exports into cigarettes, we could get between US$50 and US$60 billion. Cognisant of that, the Government is operationalising the Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan (TVCTP) whose main objective is to increase value addition from the current two to 30 percent,” the Minister said.
Online Reporter