‘Go ahead and sow: Zimbabwe to get enough rains’

THE Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has assured the nation that normal to above normal rains are expected in the 2024/25 rainfall season, allaying fears of another drought in Zimbabwe and parts of Southern Africa as predicted by some international climate forecasters.

The MSD also provided an update on the formation of Cyclone Bheki, the second tropical storm of the season, over the Indian Ocean, assuring the nation that the storm remains distant and does not pose a direct threat. Authorities are closely monitoring its progress to ensure timely updates to the public.

“Cyclone Bheki is still far from the shores of Southern Africa and the Meteorological Services Department will continue to keep track of the storm and give timely updates to the nation,” said the department’s head of forecasting, Mr James Ngoma.

Southern Zimbabwe is already experiencing thunderstorms and sporadic rains, with the highest recorded rainfall of 34mm reported in Harare’s Belvedere area on Saturday. Nkayi, one of the driest districts in the country, followed with 20mm, while Tsholotsho, another district in Matabeleland North Province, recorded 7mm.

The assurance that the country is expected to receive normal to above-normal rains will come as good news to farmers and the public, who have been reacting to weather predictions from other climate forecasters such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The foreign climate forecaster last month predicted that chances of La Niña weather events in the coming months have decreased, adding that if this phenomenon occurs, it would be weak and short-lived. The La Niña phenomenon, as opposed to El Niño, which is accompanied by drought conditions, brings with it wetter conditions.

Mr Ngoma said there is no need to panic, adding that the MSD weather forecast of good rains in the country still stands.

“Our seasonal forecast has not changed and we would like to assure the nation that the country will get normal to below normal rains in the OND (October, November, December) period, but as the season progresses, we expect normal to above normal rains. We are expecting an improvement in rain as the season progresses. The rainfall distribution predictions are still a bit favourable and we expect to get rain until the end of the year,” he said.

He said the MSD weather conditions for the 2024/25 rainy season are in line with other global agencies.

“Other global agencies are predicting that we are not getting into a very strong La Niña but rather a weak one as predicted by MSD as well as the SADC (Southern African Development Community) region where we held our seasonal outlook for the entire region two months ago.

“We had the entire SADC team in Zimbabwe where MSD also predicted that the region is projected towards a La Niña weather forecast. We should get normal to below-normal rainfall as we start the season, but as we get to December, January, February and into March, the MSD expects normal to above-normal rainfall. It should start at a slow rate, but we should expect increased precipitation as we get into the later months of the season.”

Climate models by the Australians had suggested that the development of La Niña will not be significant enough to bring good rains, in a forecast that could also see similar conditions taking place in Southern Africa. Australia and SADC both lie in the Southern Hemisphere.

However, in August this year, the 29th Annual Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof) forecast that the bulk of the SADC region was likely to receive good rainfall in the coming 2024-2025 summer cropping season.

Zimbabwe and most other SADC countries recorded the lowest rainfall in decades in the 2023-2024 cropping season, resulting in increased food insecurity and water shortages across the region. The El Niño weather pattern affected agricultural production and other key sectors like tourism, industry and energy production.

MSD forecasts for today predict mild to warm conditions countrywide, with isolated thunderstorms expected in areas north of the watershed. Southern regions, including Matabeleland South and Masvingo, are likely to experience warmer and sunnier weather during the day but should remain on alert for possible evening showers.

In its latest update, MSD issued precautionary measures.

“When thunder roars, it is best to be indoors. Secure rooftops, especially in schools as rains may be accompanied by strong winds and hail in some places.”

Communities in southern Zimbabwe, particularly those near Tsholotsho and Masvingo, are encouraged to remain vigilant and prepare for any weather-related emergencies. Cyclone Bheki’s trajectory remains uncertain, but its presence underscores the importance of preparedness during this storm season. The public is urged to monitor updates from official channels as more information becomes available.